Latin America Economics Weekly Sheinbaum’s 100 commitments, inflation worries The recently-unveiled policy plans from Claudia Sheinbaum, the frontrunner to become Mexico’s next president, are aimed at building on President López Obrador’s legacy, but her proposals are likely to... 8th March 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria rate hike, Kenya inflation, Zambia debt deal The Nigerian central bank’s 400bp interest rate hike should help provide respite to the naira and help to curb inflation. But Nigeria will need to shift away from interventionist fiscal and FX short... 1st March 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s election campaign, Brazil’s G20 damp squib Campaigning for Mexico’s election on 2nd June officially kicks off today. The presidential front-runner, Claudia Sheinbaum, will probably continue the social policies of her predecessor but is likely... 1st March 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (February 2024) Aggregate EM growth softened towards the end of last year and we think it will remain weak in 2024. But there will be divergence at the country level with growth slowing in those economies that... 29th February 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up in 2024 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation fades. Even so, tight fiscal and... 28th February 2024 · 0 mins read
UK Housing Market Update The Times: Why 99 per cent mortgages will make the housing crisis worse A version of this report was originally published as an opinion piece in The Times on 28th February 2024. 28th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Amlo leaving public finances on a slippery slope Mexico’s President López Obrador’s cloak of fiscal prudence is being shed this year as Morena tries to bolster its support ahead of June’s election. As some of the factors supportive of the public... 27th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa Budget, SARB new MPC member South Africa’s finance minister recommitted to fiscal restraint in this week’s Budget, but fiscal pressures before and after May’s election are likely to derail the plans. The debt-to-GDP ratio will... 23rd February 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Larger mortgages challenge weak house price forecasts The fact buyers are using lower mortgage rates to borrow more, rather than spend less on repayments, is a major challenge to the view house price growth will be weak in the years ahead. If there has... 23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia’s unorthodox policy shift, Egypt’s Unified Budget Act While Tunisia's government managed to avert default this week by meeting a Eurobond repayment, it only did so by draining already low FX reserves. With the new central bank governor set to take... 22nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: election pressures will challenge austerity plans The fiscal restraint shown by South Africa’s finance minister in today’s Budget was received positively in local financial markets, but the reality is that the government will struggle to meet its... 21st February 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Unpacking this year’s EM bond issuance bonanza EM sovereigns have issued a record amount of FX debt at the start of this year, capitalising on a window created by the decline in US Treasury yields since October. The issuance has been concentrated... 20th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentine inflation, Pemex’s debt problem Argentina’s President Javier Milei has made tackling rampant inflation – which data out this week showed is now running at over 250% – a key priority, but the historical record in Latin America... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Pemex debt fears back in the spotlight Moody’s downgrade of Pemex at the end of last week reinforces the view we set out last year that the next government in Mexico will prove to be less supportive of the troubled state energy company... 12th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SONA, Kenya buyback, Zambian copper South African President Ramaphosa’s State of the Nation address this week pointed to costly welfare and healthcare expansions ahead of this year’s election. This would make the job of stabilising the... 9th February 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Copom’s challenges, Amlo’s amendments This week’s release of the minutes to the latest Copom meeting, January CPI figures and December budget data support our view that Brazil’s central bank will lower interest rates by less than most... 9th February 2024 · 6 mins read
