Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Aramco’s plans, Jordan and regional conflict, Tunisia’s crisis

Saudi Arabia’s government this week directed the state oil giant Aramco to suspend plans to raise oil production capacity, but this won’t necessarily stop Aramco from ramping up actual output in the...

1st February 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little...

30th January 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Will Saudi shift tack on oil policy?

Saudi Arabia has cut oil output significantly over the past year or so but that hasn’t prevented global oil prices from falling. Despite Aramco’s announcement today that it is postponing plans to...

30th January 2024 · 5 mins read

JODI Energy Demand Monitor

JODI Energy Demand Monitor

JODI data on global oil and natural gas consumption paint a nuanced picture of global energy demand. While oil demand growth slowed towards the end of last year, consumption of natural gas was...

29th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Could Saudi live with a sustained fall in oil prices?

Saudi Arabia’s government returned to running budget deficits last year and is likely to continue doing so. But these should be easily financed. Oil prices would probably have to fall sharply, to...

23rd January 2024 · 5 mins read

Energy Update

Energy prices are not that high in real terms

Energy prices seem historically high at first glance. However, that is not strictly the case. After adjusting for inflation, oil and US natural gas prices are already at or below pre-pandemic levels...

19th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Energy Update

Why hasn’t the Middle East sparked an oil price rally?

Perhaps surprisingly, the latest escalation in Middle East tensions has not prompted a surge in oil prices. We think this is because, so far, oil output is unaffected. Moreover, we suspect it also...

16th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Middle East tensions to keep a floor under oil prices

The Middle East continued to be the focus of commodity markets, although most prices ended the week either flat or lower. That said, the escalation of Houthi attacks on shipping and subsequent...

12th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Industrial metals price weakness rolls over into 2024

This week was a mixed bag for commodities. As tensions in the Middle East continued to rise, oil prices edged up despite an increase in US petroleum product stocks pointing to sluggish demand...

5th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities

Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

Our Commodities Overview Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think the big declines in energy prices are now behind us. Oil prices will remain...

5th January 2024 · 0 mins read

Energy Chart Pack

Energy Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

Our Energy Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Energy prices will fall in 2024, although we think the big falls are now behind us. Supply has not...

4th January 2024 · 1 min read

Africa Economics Update

Nigeria: refineries to help but not solve external strains

Output from Nigeria’s oil refinery sector has been in terminal decline, inflating the fuel import bill at a time when the economy is already suffering from a shortage of hard currency. The new Dangote...

4th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Zambia IMF deal, Angola leaves OPEC, DRC elections

Zambia’s continued progress with fiscal consolidation is paying dividends. It unlocked the latest tranche of its IMF deal this week and its compliance with the Fund’s targets may help to progress debt...

22nd December 2023 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities wrapped; shipping chaos; OPEC frictions

While the robusta price had the largest gain this week (~11%) due to ongoing drought and dry conditions in Vietnam and Brazil, the rebound in oil prices captured most of the attention, as this was...

22nd December 2023 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

COP28 & long-run energy demand

The high profile announcements from COP28 around renewable capacity pledges and fossil fuel usage are ambitious, but strike us as either overly optimistic or vague. While we think renewable energy...

21st December 2023 · 4 mins read