Energy Update Mexico’s oil export cuts won’t damage global supply Longstanding turmoil in Mexico’s state-owned oil company, Pemex, alongside newly announced export cuts, raise questions about the outlook for Mexico’s oil output. But it will not be a large enough... 30th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran has largely been shrugged off by the oil market and risk premia in the Gulf remain low. Even so, growth will remain weak in the Gulf this year... 24th April 2024 · 1 min read
Event Commodities Drop-In: Geopolitical risk and the commodities price outlook 1714658400 Geopolitical risk may be ever-present in global commodity markets, but it’s arguably been an even bigger driver over the past year or so.
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE set to be top of the class again in 2024 The UAE’s economy outperformed the other Gulf economies in 2023 and we think that this outperformance will continue this year. 23rd April 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Rising risks to energy supply, but not time to overreact In a week that started with Iran’s drone and missile attack on Israel and which ended with Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran, it is somewhat surprising that the price of Brent crude fell. After all... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Middle East tensions may support Venezuela’s oil sector Concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East and the impact on global oil supplies increase the likelihood that the US will renew its sanctions waiver on Venezuela when the current one... 16th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Middle East tensions not yet a major threat to inflation As things stand, higher oil prices will boost inflation in advanced economies by only a few tenths of a percentage point in the months ahead and we still expect this boost to fade as the year goes on... 16th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Oil prices and the stock market Many of the usual relationships between oil prices and equities haven’t held over recent months. This Update explores the reason for that, and what may lie in store for energy equities and the broader... 16th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Iran drone strike & the oil market implications There are clearly many ways in which tensions between Iran and Israel could escalate and push up oil prices following the Iranian drone strike at the weekend. But the risk that a conflict involving... 15th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Precious metals rise again; gas markets unstable The stronger-than-expected US CPI data for March may have sent the dollar and Treasury yields higher but commodity prices largely shrugged off the news. Indeed, precious metals rose strongly this week... 12th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Don’t read too much into rising gold and oil prices The prices of oil and gold have surged since the start of the year. However, we do not think that the co-movement is necessarily linked. Admittedly, tensions in the Middle East are a common upward... 5th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Consulate strike and the threat of a Iran-Israel war The Israeli strike on Iran’s consulate in Syria this week has ratcheted up tensions in the region and the threat of an outright conflict between Iran and Israel is at its highest since the war in Gaza... 4th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Commodities Outlook Energy prices to cool, but metals to hold firm for now We expect most commodity prices to fall over the next couple of years as greater supply enters the market. Industrial metals are the exception, China’s policymakers have stepped up stimulus in recent... 4th April 2024 · 33 mins read
