Global Economics Update Middle East tensions not yet a major threat to inflation As things stand, higher oil prices will boost inflation in advanced economies by only a few tenths of a percentage point in the months ahead and we still expect this boost to fade as the year goes on... 16th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Oil prices and the stock market Many of the usual relationships between oil prices and equities haven’t held over recent months. This Update explores the reason for that, and what may lie in store for energy equities and the broader... 16th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Iran drone strike & the oil market implications There are clearly many ways in which tensions between Iran and Israel could escalate and push up oil prices following the Iranian drone strike at the weekend. But the risk that a conflict involving... 15th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Precious metals rise again; gas markets unstable The stronger-than-expected US CPI data for March may have sent the dollar and Treasury yields higher but commodity prices largely shrugged off the news. Indeed, precious metals rose strongly this week... 12th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Don’t read too much into rising gold and oil prices The prices of oil and gold have surged since the start of the year. However, we do not think that the co-movement is necessarily linked. Admittedly, tensions in the Middle East are a common upward... 5th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Consulate strike and the threat of a Iran-Israel war The Israeli strike on Iran’s consulate in Syria this week has ratcheted up tensions in the region and the threat of an outright conflict between Iran and Israel is at its highest since the war in Gaza... 4th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Commodities Outlook Energy prices to cool, but metals to hold firm for now We expect most commodity prices to fall over the next couple of years as greater supply enters the market. Industrial metals are the exception, China’s policymakers have stepped up stimulus in recent... 4th April 2024 · 33 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia's non-oil economy to drive the recovery After a very weak 2023, Saudi Arabia’s economy should see a modest recovery this year as the Kingdom’s non-oil economy sustains its strong momentum and more than offsets the drag from the extended oil... 3rd April 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Baltimore tragedy not a major issue for energy flows The collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge in Baltimore this week is unlikely to have a large impact on global energy flows. For oil, flows of crude and refined products to or from Baltimore are... 28th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) Sub-Saharan Africa will record a pick-up in growth over the coming years, helped by an improving external environment. But tight fiscal and monetary policy will constrain the recovery and our GDP... 28th March 2024 · 0 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s path to faster growth, Houthis and Gulf oil output Egypt’s recent policy shift has been met with a lot of optimism among investors and will likely see its new IMF deal approved by the Executive Board tomorrow. But the policies involve some near-term... 28th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery stuck in low gear Sub-Saharan Africa will record a pick-up in growth over the coming years, helped by an improving external environment reducing the threat of further large currency falls as well as sovereign defaults... 27th March 2024 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook A soft 2024, but faster growth around the corner Low oil output in the Gulf will constrain GDP growth over the first half of this year. But as this reverses, growth will pick up and by more than most expect. Elsewhere in Middle East and North Africa... 25th March 2024 · 20 mins read
Commodities Weekly Strikes on Russia’s refineries raise oil price risks Further attacks by Ukraine on Russia’s oil refining sector were the major driver of crude prices this week with the price of Brent remaining firmly above $85 per barrel. Reports that the US had urged... 22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read