Energy Update Weak demand to drag oil prices lower early next year The recent slump in oil prices tells us one thing – that demand concerns are in the driving seat. Given that we expect a further slowdown in global growth in Q1 2023, we think prices could fall... 13th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil sectors to fuel Gulf slowdown Growth across the Middle East and North Africa is set to slow sharply, and by more than most expect, next year. Oil output cuts will weigh on the Gulf even as fiscal policy stays loose. And while IMF... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Energy stocks may hold up better than oil prices suggest Even if oil prices don’t rebound substantially in the near term, we doubt developed market equities in the energy sector will reverse course and underperform the rest of the stock market next year. In... 9th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Revising down our oil price forecasts for 2023 A few weeks ago, we flagged the growing downside risks to our oil price forecasts due to weak Chinese demand. Despite the loosening of China’s COVID restrictions since then, we think the end to the... 9th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update China re-opening optimism boosts commodity imports Rather surprisingly, commodity imports generally ticked up in November, despite the wider deterioration in China’s trade position. However, we think this reflects undue optimism about an imminent pick... 8th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks fell again, but there were some chunky builds in product stocks. Given the rise in stocks, product prices should fall further, which will eventually lead to lower refinery... 7th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Falling Russian supply to keep oil prices high in 2023 We think slower global economic activity and a somewhat stronger US dollar will weigh on commodities prices in the coming months. However, the recession should prove relatively shallow and we expect... 5th December 2022 · 14 mins read
Commodities Weekly We will know more about oil supply next week Commodity prices generally rose this week as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that smaller interest rate rises were likely led to a depreciation in the US dollar. Prices were also supported by news... 2nd December 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Unpacking the G7 oil price cap ahead of 5th December There are only a few days to go until the next packages of EU sanctions on Russia targeting its oil trade come into force. There are a few key details still left to be finalised, but it seems to us... 2nd December 2022 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodities demand under growing pressure The latest manufacturing PMI data from China strengthens our view that China’s industrial metals demand growth slowed in November and will probably weaken further in December. 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ meeting, Qatar-Germany gas deal It seems likely that OPEC+ will opt to continue with October’s agreement to cut output quotas by 2mn bpd when the group meets on Sunday. That said, there are further signs that the group will become... 1st December 2022 · 8 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks plunged as the refinery utilisation rate rose, net imports fell sharply and strategic reserve releases continued to wind down. However, signs of lower domestic product demand... 30th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Downside pressure on commodity prices mounting There have been a few developments this week that have exacerbated downside risks to our current commodity price forecasts. First, new COVID-19 cases continued to surge to record highs in China... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Energy Update China concerns raise downside risks to our forecasts With China now battling its most widespread COVID-19 outbreak since the start of the pandemic, the country and its economy face a dire few weeks. As a result, China’s demand for oil will come under... 25th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Oil price cap lacking consensus, Russia’s 2023 budget Details about a potential price cap on Russian oil this week of $65-70pb are bringing us to the view that it won't have much of an immediate impact on Russia. We think the combination of the EU oil... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ tensions, US-Saudi relations, Saudi-Argentina The volatility of oil prices has highlighted the uncertainty over the current OPEC+ oil output agreement and adds to our view that, with tensions already reportedly strained between members, the... 24th November 2022 · 6 mins read
