Global Economics Update Upgrade to 2023 China forecast and its implications Disruption from China’s reopening is fading faster than we had expected and we have revised up our forecast for growth there from 2.0% to 5.5%. This means that global GDP growth will be stronger than... 12th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks surged last week at the fastest pace since February 2021, as net imports rose and disruption to refineries lingered from the recent cold weather disruption. Going forward, a... 11th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly New year, same trends Most commodity prices declined this week, with energy prices falling especially sharply. Unseasonably mild weather in Europe and the US weighed on heating demand, prompting a plunge in gas prices. The... 6th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks rose last week due to refinery closures in the wake of the extremely cold weather. But this should be short-lived, with most refinery plants back online soon. 5th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks rose last week owing to a rebound in net imports, which was largely the result of the reopening of the Keystone pipeline. More interesting was the jump in implied product... 29th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Rise in risk appetite for industrial metals is premature Unusually, investors have been reducing their net-long position in the oil futures market, but increasing their position in industrial metals. We suspect this reflects optimism about China reopening... 22nd December 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report This week’s report showed a sizeable drop in commercial crude stocks as net imports fell sharply. With US production unlikely to rise by much and plans for strategic reserves to be refilled next year... 21st December 2022 · 3 mins read
Event The World in 2023 - What to Expect in Financial and Commodity Markets 1673424000 Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing held this special 20-minute online briefing with Chief Markets Economist John Higgins and Chief Commodities Economist Caroline Bain on the outlook for financial
Commodities Weekly Huge risks associated with China reopening The raft of inflation data and central bank policy decisions were key drivers of prices this week, but to some extent China stole the show. We now think that a dismantling of the zero-COVID policy is... 16th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Outlook The global recession isn’t done with commodities yet Tight financial conditions and China’s biggest COVID outbreak yet mean global economic growth will slow further in the first quarter of next year, dragging most commodity prices lower. The slowdown... 16th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report While this week’s report revealed a whopping increase in commercial stocks, prices were up a little following the release. Instead, most attention is on the latest oil demand forecasts from OPEC and... 14th December 2022 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Dec.) OPEC lowered its world oil demand forecasts for the next six months yesterday, but raised its demand forecasts for the following six months. This supports our view that the cut to OPEC+ output quotas... 14th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Weak demand to drag oil prices lower early next year The recent slump in oil prices tells us one thing – that demand concerns are in the driving seat. Given that we expect a further slowdown in global growth in Q1 2023, we think prices could fall... 13th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil sectors to fuel Gulf slowdown Growth across the Middle East and North Africa is set to slow sharply, and by more than most expect, next year. Oil output cuts will weigh on the Gulf even as fiscal policy stays loose. And while IMF... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Energy stocks may hold up better than oil prices suggest Even if oil prices don’t rebound substantially in the near term, we doubt developed market equities in the energy sector will reverse course and underperform the rest of the stock market next year. In... 9th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Revising down our oil price forecasts for 2023 A few weeks ago, we flagged the growing downside risks to our oil price forecasts due to weak Chinese demand. Despite the loosening of China’s COVID restrictions since then, we think the end to the... 9th December 2022 · 6 mins read
