Commodities Weekly Downside pressure on commodity prices mounting There have been a few developments this week that have exacerbated downside risks to our current commodity price forecasts. First, new COVID-19 cases continued to surge to record highs in China... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Energy Update China concerns raise downside risks to our forecasts With China now battling its most widespread COVID-19 outbreak since the start of the pandemic, the country and its economy face a dire few weeks. As a result, China’s demand for oil will come under... 25th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Oil price cap lacking consensus, Russia’s 2023 budget Details about a potential price cap on Russian oil this week of $65-70pb are bringing us to the view that it won't have much of an immediate impact on Russia. We think the combination of the EU oil... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ tensions, US-Saudi relations, Saudi-Argentina The volatility of oil prices has highlighted the uncertainty over the current OPEC+ oil output agreement and adds to our view that, with tensions already reportedly strained between members, the... 24th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks fell for a second consecutive week and are likely to come under further pressure if strategic reserve releases wind down. Despite this, oil prices slid on demand worries and as... 23rd November 2022 · 5 mins read
Energy Update US oil output will edge higher next year High oil prices have led to a recovery in US oil investment this year. But US crude production gains have been tempered by rising business costs and an emphasis on returning profits to shareholders... 21st November 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Oil prices were little swayed by the latest EIA data showing the biggest decline in commercial crude stocks in about three months last week, given that the data were similar to industry data released... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Negative dollar-oil correlation likely to persist in the short run The negative correlation between the US dollar and the price of oil has reasserted itself in recent months, and we think it will persist as the looming global recession pushes the dollar higher and... 16th November 2022 · 4 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Nov.) OPEC’s monthly report for October showed a sharp drop in the group’s production, and further falls are likely if members are to abide by their new quotas from November. 14th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks rose this week even though more crude was used by refiners. And despite the increase in refining output, gasoline and distillate stocks fell on strong demand. We think demand... 9th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Update High US fuel prices could boost crude exports US petroleum product prices have risen again, mainly due to refinery-side supply constraints. We think this will translate into fewer product exports, but potentially even more crude oil exports. 8th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi banking sector, UAE-Saudi quarrel, COP27 The surge in Saudi interbank rates in recent weeks could cause credit growth to slow more quickly than we currently expect. Elsewhere, reports point to growing discontent in the UAE with Saudi Arabia... 3rd November 2022 · 7 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Last week’s fall in commercial and strategic crude stocks dragged total reserves to their lowest level since November 2001, contributing to a rise in prices today. Gasoline and distillate stocks also... 2nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks rose last week, as drawdowns from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve boosted commercial stocks. But the big news was that crude exports rose to a record high, probably... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly The IMF & MENA, Saudi’s industry strategy, oil demand Tunisia’s staff-level agreement with the IMF for a new deal should reduce concerns of a messy balance of payments crisis, but a sovereign debt restructuring still looks likely. Egypt, meanwhile, looks... 20th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks fell last week, but distillate stocks rose slightly as high US prices probably took away some of the incentive to export. All eyes will be on today’s announcement by the US... 19th October 2022 · 3 mins read