Africa Economics Update Kwanza slump adds to clouds over Angola’s outlook Angola’s recent 40% devaluation of the kwanza will add to inflation pressures and prompt the central bank to tighten monetary policy aggressively, all of which will weigh on near-term growth. The... 9th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 9th August 2023 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Energy Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 9th August 2023 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports falter but won’t collapse China’s commodity import volumes fell in July compared to June. Policy support should help lift metals imports over the next few months. And although crude oil imports fell sharply, we think that... 8th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Tightening oil market; Myanmar’s tin mining ban It’s been a mixed week for commodity prices. Industrial metals price generally struggled as activity surveys for China paint a grim picture of demand. (See Chart 1.) We suspect prices will tread water... 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Record SAIBOR, Egypt FX crunch, Saudi extends oil cut The Saudi Arabian interbank rate hit its highest level in over two decades and, with credit growth in the Kingdom slowing, pressure is likely to mount on the Saudi Central Bank to intervene and inject... 3rd August 2023 · 7 mins read
Energy Focus The implications of EV rollouts on DM oil demand The message from electric vehicle sales data is now clear: the EV revolution is alive and kicking and poses important implications for oil demand. We are slightly more optimistic on the pace of EV... 31st July 2023 · 19 mins read
Commodities Weekly Upside risks to our agricultural price forecasts In a week when the US dollar strengthened and the 2-year US Treasury yield rose, agricultural and energy commodity prices still climbed on the back of supply concerns. In the case of agriculturals... 21st July 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-UAE relations, Saudi inflation, Egyptian LNG A recent report in the Wall Street Journal suggests that tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE have increased. This may raise the threat of the UAE leaving OPEC+, which would result in global oil... 20th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Are other markets right to ignore oil’s rally? Equity, bond, and FX investors seem to have shrugged off the recent rise in oil prices. We wouldn’t be surprised if that continued even if prices rose further. 14th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly A last-minute Black Sea grains deal is not guaranteed For the most part, commodity prices rose this week. A weaker US dollar in the wake of a lower-than-expected June CPI reading in the US was a key factor boosting prices. Not surprisingly, the prices of... 14th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remain strong in June China’s commodity import volumes remained high in June, helped by the economic re-opening, but they were held back by softening input-related demand for the manufacture of goods for export. As... 13th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: El Niño – Gauging the risks to economies and markets 1689775200 The World Meteorological Organisation has announced a 90% probability of an El Niño event in the second half of the year, threatening more extreme climate events.
Commodities Weekly Russia & Saudi cuts; China’s control over critical metals Despite the flurry of macro data, it was a relatively quiet week for most commodity prices. Generally, a slight weakening in the US dollar, on net, contributed to small price rises. Oil prices were... 7th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil, UAE energy & mortgages, Morocco GDP The announcement by Saudi Arabia that it will roll over its voluntary 1mn bpd oil output cut through August has led us to downwardly revise our GDP growth forecast for this year. The UAE has been much... 6th July 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi non-oil sector softening blow from oil output cuts Activity in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector has continued to hold up well, but that is merely cushioning the blow to the economy from oil output cuts. 5th July 2023 · 2 mins read
