Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s path to faster growth, Houthis and Gulf oil output

Egypt’s recent policy shift has been met with a lot of optimism among investors and will likely see its new IMF deal approved by the Executive Board tomorrow. But the policies involve some near-term...

28th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economic Outlook

Recovery stuck in low gear

Sub-Saharan Africa will record a pick-up in growth over the coming years, helped by an improving external environment reducing the threat of further large currency falls as well as sovereign defaults...

27th March 2024 · 20 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

A soft 2024, but faster growth around the corner

Low oil output in the Gulf will constrain GDP growth over the first half of this year. But as this reverses, growth will pick up and by more than most expect. Elsewhere in Middle East and North Africa...

25th March 2024 · 20 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Strikes on Russia’s refineries raise oil price risks

Further attacks by Ukraine on Russia’s oil refining sector were the major driver of crude prices this week with the price of Brent remaining firmly above $85 per barrel. Reports that the US had urged...

22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read

Energy Update

Lower US oil supply in 2025 to be offset elsewhere

We expect global crude production to rise by around 2.5% in 2025 as the unwinding of OPEC+ voluntary supply cuts stretches all through next year. But non-OPEC+ oil producing nations will also play...

14th March 2024 · 4 mins read

Energy Update

Russia’s gas exports past nadir, crude to keep flowing

The winner of Russia’s election may be a foregone conclusion but the outlook for its oil and gas sector isn’t. A tightening of sanctions is an ever-present risk and the outcome of the war is uncertain...

13th March 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Mar. 2024)

We expect oil prices to edge lower in the second half of 2024 as OPEC+ starts to unwind its production cuts. However, the Israel-Hamas war, and associated risks to supply, will act as a floor under...

12th March 2024 · 1 min read

Energy Update

OPEC+ kicking the can down the road

Despite OPEC+’s decision to extend its voluntary production cuts until the end of June, we still forecast oil prices to drop back by end-2024. We continue to expect OPEC+ to raise output in the latter...

4th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

OPEC+ conundrum; Indonesia’s nickel dominance

We think OPEC+ members will opt for a short 1-3 month extension in their upcoming decision on whether to extend their voluntary production cuts, as lost market share will be a concern for members...

1st March 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little...

26th February 2024 · 1 min read

Event

EM Drop-In: Russia election 2024 – War, sanctions and commodities

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The outcome of Russia’s presidential election is a forgone conclusion.

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Israel-Hamas spillovers weigh on non-Gulf economies

The main spillover to the global economy, so far, from the Israel-Hamas conflict has been major disruptions to shipping, but there has been a bigger and broader economic impact in the MENA region...

20th February 2024 · 5 mins read

Energy Chart Pack

Energy Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Our Energy Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Energy prices have so far shrugged off disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea and the risk of wider...

5th February 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Aramco’s plans, Jordan and regional conflict, Tunisia’s crisis

Saudi Arabia’s government this week directed the state oil giant Aramco to suspend plans to raise oil production capacity, but this won’t necessarily stop Aramco from ramping up actual output in the...

1st February 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little...

30th January 2024 · 1 min read