Commodities Update

US tariffs: what next for commodity markets?

Tariffs have already boosted commodity prices in the US, and the risks to global prices and trade flows will only grow if tariffs become more widespread. Our Oil and Metals Tariff Impact Trackers are...

4th March 2025 · 2 mins read

Commodities Update

OPEC+ compromises amidst a geopolitical maelstrom

OPEC+’s plan to increase oil output by 2.2m barrels per day over the next 18 months or so risks saturating the global market and highlights the downside risks to our already below-consensus oil price...

4th March 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Trump throws more curveballs at commodity markets

President Trump loomed large over commodity markets once again this week, with tariff threats and tighter sanctions. Next week, the focus will turn to the National People’s Congress in China and an...

28th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Focus

Assessing the post-Ukraine war energy landscape

While some Russian pipeline gas flows into the EU could resume as part of any Ukraine-Russia peace deal, at most such supplies would probably only recover to about a quarter of pre-invasion levels...

24th February 2025 · 15 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: OPEC+ in a bind; US-Russia-Ukraine & energy markets

Conflicting reports this week around OPEC+'s plan regarding unwinding its voluntary output cuts from April highlight the risks of yet another delay. While any delay would tighten the oil market at the...

21st February 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Trump talks Ukraine peace, EU gas slides; metals tariffs

The possibility of the EU increasing pipeline supplies of Russian natural gas following Trump’s announcement of peace talks with Putin has contributed to a sharp fall in EU gas prices. Whether or not...

14th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi’s economy set for a modest acceleration

Saudi Arabia’s economic growth will accelerate this year as the Kingdom starts to unwind oil production cuts from April. But while the Kingdom’s non-oil sector started the year on a strong footing...

11th February 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (February 2025)

Trump’s curveballs have limited sway in oil markets With oil prices back to where they were at the start of the year, the oil market has offered a collective shrug to the geopolitical curveballs...

10th February 2025 · 1 min read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Frothy coffee?; EU gas woe; "Max pressure", little impact

While the steady upward grind in EU natural gas prices has been less spectacular than the recent hockey stick-shaped surge in the price of arabica coffee beans, the doubling in EU gas prices since...

7th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Trump muddles the US’s relations with MENA

President Trump’s comments on Gaza risk straining relations with the Gulf and will work against his aim of expanding the Abraham Accords to include a normalisation of Saudi-Israel relations. Meanwhile...

6th February 2025 · 7 mins read

Climate Economics Update

Solar take-up in Saudi will be felt in global oil markets

The renewable rollout in Saudi Arabia is set to accelerate on the back of cheap solar panel imports from China. Given that Saudi Arabia is one of a few countries that directly burns crude oil for...

5th February 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

Tracking the knock-on effects of US tariffs on oil

The fact that the US is highly dependent on crude oil imports from Canada and Mexico has (so far at least) not precluded oil from the threat of President Trump’s tariffs. Against this backdrop, our...

4th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Africa Weekly: SA’s SOE “tough love”, Nigeria fuel imports, USAID

South African SOEs have had a hard week, with demands for a bailout of Transnet being rebuffed and Eskom getting a smaller electricity price hike than it asked for. But perhaps the more important...

31st January 2025 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: OPEC+ and Trump, Egypt’s debt issuance

President Trump’s call for OPEC+ to “bring down the cost of oil” is unlikely to change the outcome of group’s meeting on Monday; it is likely to stick to plans to gradually raise oil output from April...

30th January 2025 · 7 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2025)

Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa this year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in some...

30th January 2025 · 0 mins read