Europe Economics Update High household saving rate unlikely to plummet Tight monetary policy and low consumer confidence have pushed the euro-zone’s household saving rate up to unusually high levels. While interest rates are set to keep falling and confidence might... 29th July 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Monetary and fiscal policy turning more supportive Policymakers’ concerns about the near-term outlook have become much more visible over the past couple of weeks, with weak Q2 growth and poor stock market performance triggering rate cuts and talk of... 26th July 2024 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (June) Core PCE prices increased by 0.18% m/m in June, largely as expected and, although May's increase was revised up slightly to 0.13%, from 0.08%, that still means inflation has been running at a target... 26th July 2024 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Following a wobbly period around the turn of the year, the economy is on the mend and should gather... 25th July 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Olympics no game changer for French economy Business surveys released this morning add to evidence that the Olympics will lift activity in France slightly in Q3. However, activity is likely to drop back again in Q4 and we still think annual GDP... 24th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (July 2024) The recent set of mild inflation data and growing concerns among Fed officials about downside risks to the labour market reinforce our view that the first interest rate cut will come in September. We... 22nd July 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (May 2024) After a brief rebound in April, the renewed fall in retail sales volumes in May suggests that consumption growth is weakening again. We estimate that sales volumes fell by around 1% annualised in the... 19th July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (June) Although retail sales were unchanged in June, the strong 0.9% m/m rise in control group sales should ease concerns about the plight of the consumer in the wake of the renewed slump in sentiment... 16th July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul. 2024) The further decline in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in July adds to the evidence that consumers are increasingly struggling with high interest rates. Although the link between... 12th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi non-oil activity cooling Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth is likely to pick up, and markedly so in 2025. But that will be driven by rising oil output. We think that activity in the non-oil economy will slow. Indeed, there are signs... 11th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What to make of May’s plunge in household spending The Monthly Household Spending Indicator is often revised several months later so the plunge in spending in May won’t deter the Reserve Bank of Australia from hiking rates next month if inflation... 8th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May 2024) Retail sales ticked up in May and we expect them to continue to rise gradually from here. 5th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Softening domestic demand will keep RBA from hiking With inflation risks still running high, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been reluctant to drop its tightening bias. However, we still expect the Board to leave rates on hold at its upcoming August... 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (May 2024) The upside surprise in the May retail sales numbers primarily reflected consumers taking advantage of end-of-financial year sales events. As a result, we doubt the data will allay the RBA’s concerns... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Consumption support still falling short New government guidelines on how to create "new consumption scenarios" are still largely focused on supply-side reform, while little is being done to address demand weakness. Alongside a ramp-up in... 28th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA won’t loosen policy before mid-2025 Following the upside surprise in the May CPI data released this week, markets are now pricing in a nearly two-in-five chance that the RBA will hand down a 25bp hike by year-end. But there are good... 28th June 2024 · 4 mins read
