UK consumer confidence tumbles in anticipation of ‘painful’ Budget But Ashley Webb of Capital Economics said that “the marked drop in consumer confidence in September suggests the recent momentum in retail sales may cool in the coming months”. 20th September 2024 · Financial Times
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Aug. 2024) The unexpected large rise in retail sales volumes in August came on the back of a 0.7% m/m increase in July (revised up from 0.5% m/m) and lends some support to our view that the recent stagnation in... 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Slowdown still has a lot further to run An acceleration in fiscal spending during the final months of the year should mean the 2024 growth target of “around 5.0%” is met, but only just – we now expect growth of 4.8% this year. China’s... 19th September 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Lower gasoline prices to cushion consumers Despite the US being a net oil exporter, the recent plunge in the oil price will be a tailwind for the economy, as lower gasoline prices support consumer confidence and real consumption. The Fed will... 17th September 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Aug. 2024) The stronger-than-expected retail sales data for August suggest that, boosted by rapid wealth gains and falling energy prices, consumers continue to spend freely despite the labour market slowdown... 17th September 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Low saving rate not a major concern The continued decline in the saving rate, which is now close to a 16-year low, is not a major concern given the recent surge in household net wealth. Furthermore, as the saving rate is calculated from... 16th September 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep. 2024) Despite the small rise in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in September, consumer confidence remains in a slump. At face value, weak sentiment points to softer consumer spending... 13th September 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Mortgage rate cut would offer modest consumption boost Officials in China are reportedly planning to reduce the interest rate on existing mortgages. A similar move last year did little to lift consumption because the reduction in mortgage rates was offset... 6th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to hold the line despite consumption squeeze National accounts data published this week showed that the Australian economy slowed to a grind last quarter, while private consumption fell outright. However, we suspect that the RBA will take that... 6th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: labour market driving spending and inflation fears The tightening of Brazil’s labour market and pick-up in wage growth over the first half of the year has supported a consumer boom. We expect conditions to cool over the coming quarters but, for now... 5th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (July 2024) Retail sales increased by 0.1% in July, and we expect them to rise further in the coming months, though at only a fairly modest pace. 5th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q2 2024) Although activity likely bottomed out last quarter, the ongoing weakness in private demand raises the risk that the RBA will cut rates sooner rather than later. 4th September 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Jul.) The July income and spending report shows price pressures remaining muted despite the strength of real consumption. The latter suggests that third-quarter consumption growth will be 3.7%. Even... 30th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Wage growth is starting to outpace inflation and with real incomes rising, the rebound in consumer... 26th August 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Jun. 2024) Despite the 0.1% m/m gain in June, retail sales volumes contracted last quarter, suggesting that household consumption growth also slowed. Prospects for the third quarter look better, with the... 23rd August 2024 · 2 mins read
