Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. While the economy has only narrowly avoided a recession, activity should rebound over coming... 20th May 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Apr. 2024) We would caution against jumping to the conclusion that consumers are starting to crack under high interest rates, despite the disappointing retail sales data for April, as some payback always seemed... 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Confidence (May) The renewed slump in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment gauge to a six-month low of 67.4 in May, from 77.2, is hard to explain given that gasoline prices are now falling again, the stock... 10th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA on an extended pause, budget in the spotlight Although the RBA left rates unchanged at its meeting this week, Governor Bullock stated that the Board was prepared to raise rates if it had to. Against this backdrop, there have been concerns from... 10th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: excess savings an upside growth and inflation risk Private sector savings surged in Israel during the pandemic and jumped again last year amid the war in Gaza. We estimate that those built up due to the war are equivalent to around 3.0% of GDP and... 9th May 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Politburo Meeting (Apr. 24) China’s senior leadership has today signalled further fiscal and monetary support for the economy and renewed efforts to stabilise the housing market. That should help prolong the recent economic... 30th April 2024 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to hike in May, no rate cuts until 2025 We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike rates by 25bp at its meeting next week, in contrast to the consensus view that the Bank will remain on hold. Given the RBA’s ostensible resolve to... 30th April 2024 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Mar. 2024) The weakness in retail sales last month suggests that sales volumes fell across Q1 as a whole. However, with households’ real incomes staging a recovery, consumer spending should pick up over the... 30th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Stock market rally only a small support for consumers Our equity and house price forecasts imply household net wealth will rise significantly over the next three years. Even so, we estimate that household net wealth as a share of disposable incomes will... 26th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. (Please ignore the previous email which linked to the February Chart Pack) The latest activity data... 24th April 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE set to be top of the class again in 2024 The UAE’s economy outperformed the other Gulf economies in 2023 and we think that this outperformance will continue this year. 23rd April 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China trip notes – sentiment still depressed A week spent visiting clients, contacts and friends in Beijing and Shanghai has underlined the extent of the pessimistic shift in sentiment within China. 23rd April 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Another tough year ahead for Korean consumers A weak labour market and high interest rates will continue to weigh heavily on Korea’s consumer sector this year. The poor prospects for consumer spending is one of the main reasons we think overall... 22nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Mar. 2024) Although retail sales volumes remaining unchanged in March was worse than expected (consensus forecast +0.3% m/m, CE +0.5 % m/m), sales volumes still rose by 1.9% q/q in Q1 as a whole, bringing the... 19th April 2024 · 3 mins read
