China Economics Weekly Fiscal package should limit downside risk to growth The NPC standing committee is set to approve a fiscal package at its meeting next week. A large proportion will likely be used to tackle local government debt, but it's unclear how much (if any) will... 1st November 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to cut rates in Q1 as capacity pressures ease Financial markets continued to scale back their expectations for rate cuts by the RBA following the release of Q3 CPI data this week. As a result, t hey are now fully pricing in a rate cut only in May... 1st November 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Sep. 2024) Although real retail sales saw a healthy pickup in Q3, there are reasons to suspect the data are overstating the momentum behind overall household consumption. That being the case, policy implications... 31st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep. 24) 31st October 2024 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA still on course to cut rates by February The Reserve Bank of Australia is all but certain to leave rates unchanged at its meeting next week. We suspect it will reiterate its pledge to hold its fire until year-end, given that the labour... 30th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths on policy over the forecast horizon. With the... 29th October 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Retail Sales (Aug. 2024) The increase in retail sales in August and flash estimate for another rise in September poses an upside risk to the Bank of Canada’s forecast of household consumption in the third quarter. If realised... 25th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector set for a slowdown Saudi Arabia’s economy is making a steady recovery as solid growth in the non-oil sector offsets low oil production. Growth will continue to pick up over the coming quarters, but the drivers will... 24th October 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Sep. 2024) September’s 0.3% m/m rise in retail sales volumes was stronger than expected (consensus forecast -0.3% m/m, CE -0.5% m/m) and suggests that while households may be concerned about possible tax rises... 18th October 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Sep. 2024) The strong 0.7% m/m rise in control group retail sales in September suggests that consumption growth strengthened to more than 3% annualised last quarter. That said, timelier data show a big drop in... 17th October 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct. 2024) The trivial fall in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in October was likely driven in part by Hurricane Helene, although the fall in the expectations index suggests the mood among... 11th October 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to look for at the MoF press conference All eyes are on the Ministry of Finance's crucial press conference tomorrow morning. We think this year’s growth target is just about achievable if local governments can be pushed to fully deploy... 11th October 2024 · 10 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Strong household finances underpinning consumption The strength in household incomes poses some upside risks to our GDP forecasts. However, a more forceful recovery in domestic demand won't move the needle much in terms of inflationary pressures. In... 11th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) The latest data are consistent with our view that the world economy is in a soft patch. There are signs that global manufacturing is headed for recession and trade will soften. Consumers in DMs... 10th October 2024 · 1 min read
