UK Economics Weekly

Strong rebound in housing activity an upside risk to GDP

Our forecast implies that the recovery in the housing market will both directly and indirectly add about 0.8% to the level of GDP by the end of 2026. But the risk is that the housing market rebound is...

9th August 2024 · 11 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

UAE’s to remain the Gulf’s star economy

The UAE’s economy has been the strongest performer in the Gulf over the past year or so and a robust non-oil sector should help the UAE retain its crown as the fastest growing economy in the region.

6th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Retail Sales (June 2024)

Retail sales fell in June but we think they will gradually rise over the remainder of the year on the back of strong real household income growth and falling interest rates.

6th August 2024 · 1 min read

China Economics Weekly

Investment still the preferred policy lever to pull

We wouldn’t take this week’s pledge from the Politburo to tilt stimulus towards consumption at face value. The only concrete measures along these lines that have been announced recently have been more...

2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Bank of Japan encouraged by pick-up in consumption

A rebound in retail sales likely underpinned the Bank of Japan's decision to raise interest rates this week. Measures by the government, including tax cuts and electricity and gas subsidies, should...

2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Could the RBA still hike rates?

Following the downside surprise in Australia's Q2 CPI data, investors are betting that rate cuts will be on the table before long. While we do agree that the RBA's next move is likely to be down, that...

2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Q2)

31st July 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (June 24)

31st July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

High household saving rate unlikely to plummet

Tight monetary policy and low consumer confidence have pushed the euro-zone’s household saving rate up to unusually high levels. While interest rates are set to keep falling and confidence might...

29th July 2024 · 3 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Monetary and fiscal policy turning more supportive

Policymakers’ concerns about the near-term outlook have become much more visible over the past couple of weeks, with weak Q2 growth and poor stock market performance triggering rate cuts and talk of...

26th July 2024 · 7 mins read

US Rapid Response

Income & Spending (June)

Core PCE prices increased by 0.18% m/m in June, largely as expected and, although May's increase was revised up slightly to 0.13%, from 0.08%, that still means inflation has been running at a target...

26th July 2024 · 1 min read

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (Jul. 2024)

Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Following a wobbly period around the turn of the year, the economy is on the mend and should gather...

25th July 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

Olympics no game changer for French economy

Business surveys released this morning add to evidence that the Olympics will lift activity in France slightly in Q3. However, activity is likely to drop back again in Q4 and we still think annual GDP...

24th July 2024 · 4 mins read

US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (July 2024)

The recent set of mild inflation data and growing concerns among Fed officials about downside risks to the labour market reinforce our view that the first interest rate cut will come in September. We...

22nd July 2024 · 1 min read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Retail Sales (May 2024)

After a brief rebound in April, the renewed fall in retail sales volumes in May suggests that consumption growth is weakening again. We estimate that sales volumes fell by around 1% annualised in the...

19th July 2024 · 2 mins read