Japan Economics Update Should the BoJ sell its ETF holdings at a discount? While selling its exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings at book value to the government wouldn’t impair the Bank of Japan’s balance sheet, we don’t think it would provide the boost to fiscal revenue... 14th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Recession delayed but not cancelled The economy held up better at the start of the year than we had anticipated, but we still expect it to enter a recession in the second half of the year. Even though underlying inflation probably hasn... 12th June 2023 · 17 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone recession to drag on The euro-zone has fallen into recession, albeit only by the finest of margins – the economy contracted by 0.1% q/q in both Q4 last year and Q1 this year. The consensus view is that the worst is now... 9th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian economy braces for more pain The RBA's hawkish turn has led us to revise up our forecast for the peak cash rate to 4.85%, from 4.35% previously. The resulting rise in mortgage rates means that housing affordability will soon... 9th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Resilient interest sensitive activity indicators won’t last According to our proprietary interest rate-sensitive indicators, activity in advanced economies has so far proven remarkably resilient to higher interest rates. A lot of this has been due to a rebound... 7th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1 23) Real GDP growth slowed sharply last quarter as household spending ground to a standstill. However, with productivity falling for a fourth consecutive quarter, unit labour costs grew apace... 7th June 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Don’t give up on the Chinese consumer just yet The pessimism around China’s consumer recovery is overdone in our view. The labour market is tightening, which should soon start to benefit young jobseekers and support income growth. And consumers... 1st June 2023 · 8 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Apr. 23) April’s activity data were a mixed bag. The fall in industrial production and sharp drop in retail sales volumes pose downside risks to our Q2 GDP growth forecast. By contrast, capital goods shipments... 31st May 2023 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Renminbi unlikely to revisit last year’s lows The renminbi strengthened sharply against the US dollar in response to China’s move away from zero-COVID. But the currency has since reversed much of those gains and is now approaching 7.10/$, its... 30th May 2023 · 12 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Apr. 2023) The 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales volumes in April suggests that higher interest rates are not yet taking a toll on spending. While the worst of the declines in retail sales volumes are in the past... 26th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Apr. 23) Coupled with rising unemployment and lukewarm wage growth, the weakness in retail sales in April supports our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia is done hiking interest rates. 26th May 2023 · 3 mins read
