Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Apr. 2023) April’s flash PMIs point to further upside risks to our GDP forecasts, indicating a broad improvement in both domestic and external demand. That suggests the exports downturn may be short-lived... 21st April 2023 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Direct economic effects of CRE rout will be limited We expect rising interest rates and structural headwinds to trigger a deep rout in commercial real estate. The impacts on the real economy will be mostly indirect via the impact on small bank lending... 20th April 2023 · 10 mins read
India Chart Pack The geopolitical balancing act India is benefitting from maintaining its historic unaligned stance in tensions between the US and Russia. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, India has been ramping up oil imports from Russia to... 20th April 2023 · 10 mins read
China Rapid Response GDP (Q1), Activity & Spending (Mar.) GDP rebounded more quickly than expected in Q1 thanks to a rapid return to normality following last year’s virus disruptions. With consumer confidence on the mend and credit growth accelerating, there... 18th April 2023 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) Retail sales fell by 1.0% m/m in March, adding to the evidence that the strong start to the year was partly due to the unseasonably mild winter weather. With control group sales only falling by 0.3% m... 14th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Surge in household incomes unlikely to be sustained Some of the continued resilience of the economy has been due to the performance of household incomes, which in real terms hasn't been as weak as we expected. Some of that is due to government payments... 14th April 2023 · 10 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Mixed signals for now but broader weakness to come Recent data appear to confirm that economic activity held up better than feared at the start of 2023. Retail sales rose in most major economies over the first two months of the year, world industrial... 13th April 2023 · 13 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Governor Ueda to cull YCC as his first act Japan has escaped the recent banking turmoil in the US and Switzerland relatively unscathed. While banks face some risks arising from their lending exposure overseas, there are no signs of liquidity... 12th April 2023 · 11 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Banking troubles won’t stop ECB hiking to 4% We think that the recent stress in the banking sector has had little impact on the outlook for monetary policy in the euro-zone. While there were significant outflows of bank deposits in the five... 11th April 2023 · 11 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Economy Watchers Survey (Mar. 2023) Both the current and outlook readings in March hit their highest in more than a year, capping off a strong first quarter for the EWS. This is another sign that private consumption remained resilient... 10th April 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Resilient, but recession still likely Recent data suggest the economy’s resilient end to 2022 was sustained at the start of this year. But while the worst of the falls in real household incomes are in the past, we still think around two... 5th April 2023 · 10 mins read
China Chart Pack Uneven consumer recovery slowing down Consumer spending jumped during the first two months of the year as virus disruptions faded. The March retail sales data won’t be published for another couple of weeks. But the data we have so far... 3rd April 2023 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Banking strains will amplify tightening in credit conditions Even before the turmoil in the banking sector, UK banks were planning on sharply reducing the amount of credit available to households. The recent strains in the banking sector will amplify the... 31st March 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economic Outlook From cost of living crisis to banking crisis? The strongest headwind for the global economy has shifted from an energy crisis and the related squeeze on real incomes to a potential banking crisis and associated drag on credit. Since banks are... 30th March 2023 · 46 mins read