UK Economics Weekly Impact of higher rates spreading beyond housing Whether or not Q3 marked the start of a recession, the recent resilience of the economy appears to be fading as the drag from higher interest rates grows. The weakness in the housing market has... 10th November 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) The ECB’s recent decision to leave interest rates on hold, and its associated communications, confirm that its tightening cycle is now almost certainly over. But despite inflation having fallen... 8th November 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep. 2023) Euro-zone retail sales fell in September and, in our view, will remain weak in the coming months as the economy falls into recession. 8th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Recession still likely in Australia Timely data suggest that both goods and services consumption gained traction last quarter. Therefore, even with a huge drag on growth from net trade, it increasingly appears that the economy managed... 3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Bleak outlook for consumer spending across DMs Although consumer spending has remained remarkably resilient in the US so far this year, it has weakened in other advanced economies. And as the lagged effects of high interest rates filter through to... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hit the brakes once more With inflation surprising on the upside in Q3, we expect the RBA to lift rates by 25bp at its meeting next week. However, we suspect that the next rate hike will be the last one in the current cycle... 31st October 2023 · 8 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) China’s economy is regaining some momentum after stalling during the summer. A step up in policy support looks set to deliver a modest cyclical recovery but trend growth remains under pressure. 30th October 2023 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Personal Income & Spending (Sep.) The stronger gains in real consumption and the core PCE price index in September are a potential concern for Fed officials, but won’t be enough to convince them to resume raising interest rates next... 27th October 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Weak housing market to squeeze spending and investment We suspect that more weakness in the housing market will weigh on real GDP by further reducing residential investment and consumer spending. This is one reason why we think the economy is close to a... 25th October 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly GDP breakdown suggests service sector still struggling The official GDP figures show a marked acceleration in quarter-on-quarter growth in Q3. But a closer look at the data suggests that this may be a statistical mirage. We think that growth slowed last... 20th October 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Sep. 2023) The 0.9% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in September meant sales volumes fell 0.8% q/q in Q3 and suggests that after the 18-month-long retail recession came to an end in Q1, the sector may already... 20th October 2023 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy appears still to be holding up well in the second half of the year. And although... 18th October 2023 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The unexpectedly-strong 0.7% m/m rise in retail sales in September continues the theme of consumer resilience in the face of higher interest rates, but with employment and wage growth slowing and the... 17th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi set for weakest GDP growth in the Gulf this year Saudi Arabia’s economy is in a recession and, with oil output cuts extended until the end of this year at least, GDP will contract further. We think that the economy will shrink by 1.3% this year... 16th October 2023 · 4 mins read
