Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan won’t rush to tighten policy With the economy seemingly running hot and underlying inflation still accelerating, the case for tighter monetary policy looks increasingly compelling. However, we still expect the Bank of Japan to... 18th August 2023 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However... 17th August 2023 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We no longer expect the economy to enter a recession across the second half of the year. But with... 16th August 2023 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The 0.7% m/m jump in retail sales in July suggests that tighter monetary policy is still having remarkably little impact on real economic activity, but that isn’t necessarily a problem for the Fed... 15th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) While economic activity was generally more resilient than feared in the first half of 2023, we expect global growth to disappoint in the coming quarters. We doubt that another bout of policy stimulus... 14th August 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s recession deepens Oil output cuts fuelled Saudi Arabia’s economic downturn in the first half of 2023 and the drag from the oil sector appears to have intensified more recently. Taking together with signs that activity... 14th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are unlikely to drop... 14th August 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian households pinch pennies New data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed that real household spending well and truly fell of a cliff in Q2. Moreover, with consumer sentiment in the doldrums, private consumption is... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June 2023) Euro-zone retail sales fell in June and we expect them to continue to trend down over the rest of this year as high interest rates take an increasing toll on consumers. 4th August 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA unlikely to lift rates any higher With the Reserve Bank of Australia having left its cash rate unchanged for two consecutive meetings, we think its tightening cycle is at an end. Indeed, the RBA appears increasingly concerned that... 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE: a soft 2023, but set to be GCC top performer in 2024 We have collated a range of low-profile activity data for the UAE that point to strong activity in the non-oil economy. But this won’t be enough to offset the impact of oil production cuts. Prospects... 3rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jul. 23) China's reopening recovery has fizzled out and the economy is now at risk of slipping into a recession. We think policymakers will provide enough stimulus to avoid this and deliver a modest... 31st July 2023 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Personal Inc. & Spend. (Jun.), Employment Cost Index (Q2) The slowdown in both the employment cost index of wage growth and core PCE inflation to their lowest levels in nearly two years suggests that resilient activity growth won’t be enough to convince Fed... 28th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jun. 23) June’s activity data were broadly positive for Q2, with both the industrial production and capital goods shipments data suggesting the economy expanded at a decent pace. However, firms’ forecasts for... 28th July 2023 · 2 mins read
