China Economics Weekly

Equipment investment push may aggravate imbalances

Chinese policymakers want firms to increase equipment investment by 25% over the coming four years. If achieved, that would provide a temporary boost to domestic demand and GDP growth. But the lasting...

15th March 2024 · 6 mins read

US Rapid Response

US Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar. 2024)

The small fall the University of Michigan measure of consumer sentiment in March is further evidence that the buoyant stock market alone will not prevent consumption growth from slowing.

15th March 2024 · 1 min read

US Rapid Response

US Retail Sales & PPI (Feb.)

The 0.6% m/m rebound in retail sales in February appears to reflect the unwinding of the drag on sales from the winter storms in early January, but the details suggest that the strength of consumers...

14th March 2024 · 2 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA on course for rate cuts in August

We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Although the recent flow of data has been on the weaker side of expectations, the Bank will probably...

12th March 2024 · 8 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

The worst may be over for the Australian consumer

National accounts figures released this week showed that subdued household spending continued to weigh on the Australian economy in Q4. However, with a recovery in real disposable incomes taking shape...

8th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Retail Sales (January 2024)

January’s retail sales data are consistent with our view that the near-term outlook for consumption is poor.

6th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Economic Outlook

Negative rates will end but tightening cycle unlikely

The economy isn’t in recession but GDP growth will slow towards trend this year. With a virtuous cycle between wages and prices now in full swing, we expect the Bank of Japan to end negative rates at...

6th March 2024 · 17 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia GDP (Q4 2023)

Although GDP growth last quarter was in line with what the RBA had expected, the Bank will take comfort from the fact that households continue to exercise spending restraint, while productivity...

6th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Strong capex growth to ease capacity pressures

There are growing signs that restrictive policy settings are working to establish a more sustainable balance between demand and supply in the Australian economy. Indeed, inflation has continued to...

1st March 2024 · 5 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

BoJ will not be swayed by weak industrial output

We doubt that the slump in industrial output in January will prevent the Bank of Japan from ending negative rates over the coming months, but the recent string of disappointing data reinforces our...

1st March 2024 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Retail Sales (Jan. 24)

29th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Jan. 24)

29th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

What’s behind US economic exceptionalism?

Larger government stimulus during the pandemic and a higher propensity to run down “excess savings” have contributed to particularly strong growth in the US. On the other hand, a significant terms of...

27th February 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Retail Sales (Dec. 2024)

The strong rise in December means that retail sales volumes rose by close to 5% annualised last quarter, supporting the preliminary estimate that GDP growth turned positive again. With sales volumes...

22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to remain in “wait...

22nd February 2024 · 1 min read