Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Firm population growth creates quandary for the RBA The minutes of the RBA’s March meeting revealed that the Board has now dropped its tightening bias. However, we suspect it will be a while before the Bank can be confident it has broken the back of... 5th April 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Surging stock market a tailwind for consumers The continued surge in the stock market that we forecast is likely to drive household net wealth to a record high as a share of incomes and provide a tailwind to consumption growth. But that shouldn’t... 4th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Excess Savings RIP We think that it is now time for the curtains to close on the so-called ‘excess savings’ debate. While unusually high savings accumulated by households during the pandemic helped prevent recessions in... 3rd April 2024 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia's non-oil economy to drive the recovery After a very weak 2023, Saudi Arabia’s economy should see a modest recovery this year as the Kingdom’s non-oil economy sustains its strong momentum and more than offsets the drag from the extended oil... 3rd April 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Why interest rate cuts may crimp household income It’s unusual that higher interest rates have directly boosted household incomes by raising the amount of interest households have received on their savings by more than the interest they have paid on... 28th March 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q4 2023 Final) The final Q4 2023 GDP release confirmed that the UK economy was in the mildest of mild technical recessions at the end of last year. But timely indicators suggest the economy probably exited recession... 28th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to cut rates only in November While the data released this week confirm that Australia's economy is cooling, it is far too early for the RBA to declare victory in its fight against inflation. Indeed, underlying inflation seems to... 28th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Feb. 24) 28th March 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Prop from stimulus to be short-lived China’s economy has fared better recently and policy support is likely to remain a near-term prop to growth. But we remain less sanguine about the medium-term outlook. 27th March 2024 · 15 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Monetary policy will remain restrictive for longer Australia’s GDP growth will remain soft throughout the first half of the year so the recent stalling in inflation should be followed by a renewed moderation. However, as the labour market remains very... 27th March 2024 · 20 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) Faltering consumer spending reinforces our view that GDP growth will slow this year, although that slowdown is likely to be modest. After a disappointing couple of months for inflation, easing demand... 25th March 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s surpluses, consumer strength Argentina’s government ran another bumper primary budget surplus in February, taking President Milei a step closer to his target of achieving a balanced overall budget this year. But while the latest... 22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Feb. 2024) Unchanged retail sales volumes in February (CE forecast 0.0% m/m, consensus -0.4% m/m), as shoppers largely shrugged off the unusually wet weather, provided further evidence that a rebound in retail... 22nd March 2024 · 3 mins read
