Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Is the low saving rate an accounting illusion? Australian household finances are in better shape than the plunge in the household savings rate would suggest. While we still think that GDP growth will slow more sharply than expected over the coming... 4th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s economic struggles look set to persist In the past few years, Egypt’s economy has been hit by the successive impacts of the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and, more recently, currency devaluations. With further currency falls on the cards... 3rd January 2024 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property... 28th December 2023 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Nov. 23) 27th December 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Personal Income & Spending, Durable Goods (Nov.) The confirmation that core PCE prices rose by just 0.06% m/m in November means that, over the past six months, core inflation has been running at an annualised pace of just 1.9%. Adding in the further... 22nd December 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Nov. 2023) The 1.3% m/m rebound in retail sales volumes in November may have paused the recent retail woes as Black Friday discounting provided retailers with some much needed Christmas cheer. But with higher... 22nd December 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: end of recession in sight, but sluggish growth persists Saudi Arabia looks set to record its worst economic performance this year, outside of the pandemic and the global financial crisis, in more than two decades on the back of lower oil output. The worst... 19th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update How much cushion do excess savings provide? Australian households have built up more excess savings than those in other large, advanced economies and we estimate that those savings will only be depleted by the end of 2025. Even so, we still... 18th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Household debt service ratio will continue to rise Household net worth fell in the third quarter, although the recent resurgence in bond and equity prices means that should soon be reversed. It is too soon to sound the all-clear for households’... 15th December 2023 · 7 mins read
China Rapid Response Activity & Spending (Nov.) The main bright spot was a healthy pick-up in industrial output thanks to the strength in exports. Retail sales and fixed investment remained resilient. Meanwhile, troubles in the property sector... 15th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Overheating in services adds to case for tighter policy The Tankan revealed that capacity shortages in the services sector are now just as pronounced as they were before the pandemic. The survey also suggested that inflationary pressures in non... 15th December 2023 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The rebound in retail sales in November provides further illustration that the continued rapid decline in inflation is not coming at the cost of significantly weaker economic growth. 14th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Japan Chart pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth should rebound modestly in the fourth quarter but we expect it will remain soft in 2024... 14th December 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q3 2023) Output slumped anew in Q3, and we suspect it remained in contractionary territory this quarter as well. Accordingly, we think the RBNZ will be cutting rates a lot sooner than it is currently... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Downturn will prompt policy easing next year We suspect that both economies will narrowly avoid a recession but a prolonged period of below-trend growth will reduce price pressures and allow central banks to ease monetary policy again. We’ve... 13th December 2023 · 20 mins read
