Canada Economic Outlook Lower rates to drive stronger GDP growth next year Below potential GDP growth and falling core inflation will persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further, with the policy rate settling at 2.5% next year. Lower interest rates should, in... 26th June 2024 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA won’t cut interest rates until mid-2025 Activity has slowed to a standstill in both countries. Although output growth should gather momentum going forward, it will remain below its pre-pandemic average. However, with underlying inflation... 26th June 2024 · 20 mins read
US Economic Outlook Consumers beginning to feel the pinch We expect core inflation to be back to the 2% target by early next year, allowing the Fed to begin cutting interest rates from this September. GDP growth will remain a little lacklustre this year but... 25th June 2024 · 16 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (June 2024) Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output starts to rise from October. We think non-oil sectors will continue to grow strongly. But the... 25th June 2024 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (June 2024) The recent encouraging inflation data reinforce our view that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. We remain confident that core inflation is heading back to the 2% target, which should allow... 24th June 2024 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Policy easing to begin soon We expect economic growth in most countries in Asia to slow in the second half of 2024, as tighter fiscal policy, high interest rates and weaker global growth all weigh on demand. Inflation is back to... 20th June 2024 · 28 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q1 2024) The modest rebound in GDP last quarter doesn’t change the bigger picture that the New Zealand economy is worse for wear. In fact, timely survey data suggest that things may well get worse before they... 20th June 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (May) The soft May retail sales data support our view that, after a disappointing first quarter, GDP growth remains a little lacklustre in the second quarter too. Our forecast now stands at 1.9%. 18th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook GDP growth pick-up on a fragile footing Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output starts to rise from October. We think non-oil sectors will continue to grow strongly. But the... 18th June 2024 · 20 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jun. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. While the economy has only narrowly avoided a recession, activity should rebound over coming... 18th June 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Households deleveraging only slowly The household debt-to-income ratio fell again in the first quarter, albeit because incomes continued to rise at a faster pace than debt levels. Although the aggregate situation is slowly improving... 14th June 2024 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June 2024) The further decline in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to a seven-month low of 65.6 in June, from 69.1, suggests that households are now struggling more under the weight of higher... 14th June 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly National accounts on balance dovish The upward revisions to consumption mean that household spending has more momentum than previously thought and raise the risk that households will spend most of the income tax cuts due on 1 st July... 7th June 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus Interest rate cuts won’t reduce mortgage costs much Just as fixed mortgage rates have shielded homeowners from rising interest rates, they will prevent households’ interest costs from falling rapidly when interest rates are cut. While borrowers on... 6th June 2024 · 14 mins read
