UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Jun. 23) Net lending to commercial property was once again positive in June at £589m. The continued growth in lending to property contrasts with a contraction in overall sterling lending. Indeed, over the past... 31st July 2023 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Jul. 23) Higher-than-expected core inflation means interest rates are now set to be higher for longer and we still think the economy will enter a mild recession later this year. That’s not a great backdrop for... 20th July 2023 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Update Trip Notes – NY and Chicago client Q&A Here are answers to some of the key questions that kept coming up during meetings with clients last week in New York and Chicago, and around my presentation to the NCREIF summer conference in Chicago. 18th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack What does the new normal mean for real estate? Slides presented by our Deputy Chief Property Economist, Kiran Raichura, at the Summer NCREIF Conference, outlining our view on what the "new normal" will mean for real estate over the rest of this... 17th July 2023 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update The implications of the latest hike in gilt yields The recent rise in gilt yields to levels above those seen in the aftermath of the mini-Budget has not triggered a similar rush to sell property assets. In part because past falls in capital values... 14th July 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Why has property lending held up? The recent strength of net lending to commercial property can’t be explained by a rise in investment. Instead, we suspect some investors are borrowing against older assets to provide additional equity... 5th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Price falls slowing but poor rent outlook to drag on recovery The slowdown in rent growth at the start of this year is likely to persist given the weak economic backdrop. And although the property price correction has slowed, we think stretched valuations will... 3rd July 2023 · 35 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Flight to quality limited to offices The recent fall in commercial property values has not driven a flight to quality in either the retail or industrial sectors. But there has been a sharp rise in the office non-prime/prime spread, as... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Ranking metros by physical climate risks to real estate Florida and other parts of the Sunbelt (notably major cities in Texas) will likely face the most severe physical climate risk over the next 30 years. While this is unlikely to come as a major surprise... 14th June 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (May) While bank net lending to commercial real estate (CRE) turned positive again in May, growing signs of distress for existing loans point to further weakness ahead. The $13.7bn growth in loans secured... 12th June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Dogged inflation means more yield rises to come Higher-than-expected core inflation means interest rates are now set to be higher for longer and we still think the economy will enter a mild recession later this year. That’s not a great backdrop for... 30th May 2023 · 24 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavia & Switzerland: Yield surge cools As in the euro-zone, the rise in prime property yields in Scandinavia slowed sharply in Q1 after the surge in H2 2022. Along with decent gains in rents, where Oslo offices and industrial saw the... 26th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Yield rises show no sign of easing In contrast to the rest of Europe, CEE yields not only rose, but increased more sharply in Q1 than the previous quarter. Strong rental growth cushioned the blow to all-property capital values, but... 24th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Capital value falls slow, but further weakness ahead Capital value falls slowed in Q1 as the surge in euro-zone all-property yields cooled. But, with rent growth decelerating across all sectors, the increase in yields was still enough to drive another 4... 19th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Bank of Japan kicking the can down the road Governor Ueda presided over his first policy meeting late last month and opted to keep all monetary policy settings, including Yield Curve Control (YCC), completely unchanged. To be sure, Mr Ueda also... 11th May 2023 · 11 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Strength of Berlin office rents won’t last Berlin offices have been outperforming those in other German markets for some time. But Q1 data suggest that growth has begun to falter, and we think that the recent strength of the market won’t last. 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
