Europe Commercial Property Update Close to a floor, but investment upturn will be weak Euro-zone investment improved a little in Q4, but that did not prevent it experiencing its worst year in a decade. While we have raised our forecast for through-year growth, we still expect a weak... 5th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Latest RICS survey offers little sign of recovery The latest RICS survey offered tentative signs that we could be past the worst of the property downturn in Europe, as both occupier and investment demand balances picked up slightly. However, the big... 25th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Residential yields have further to rise The long boom in residential investment has been severely dented by soaring interest rates. Solid fundamentals mean investor interest will remain strong, but it is unlikely residential yields have... 24th January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why we see more distress coming in 2024 We expect evidence of distress to ramp up this year as loan extensions end. Many borrowers will be forced to either inject new capital, return assets to lenders or sell into a soft market. Those... 22nd January 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 2023) The latest Credit Conditions Survey showed a rise in the availability of mortgage credit in Q4 as financial market interest rates fell, but demand for mortgages slipped as mortgage rates took time to... 18th January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Five key calls for US commercial real estate in 2024 Our total returns forecasts for 2024 are significantly below consensus, as we predict that value falls will reach double digits for the second consecutive year. Retail stands out as the only sector... 9th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key calls for 2024 Falling interest rates will herald the end of the commercial property downturn in 2024. However, owing to price declines in H1 we still think values will end the year lower. Our forecast for... 5th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Reviewing our 2023 key calls In another year of upheaval for commercial property in Europe, our forecasts were broadly correct in terms of direction, but underestimated the severity of the downturn. Some, though not all, of this... 4th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: 2024 US CRE Outlook – Another year of double-digit value falls 1704904200 We think more pain is in store for US commercial real estate as weak economic growth and high interest rates continue to take their toll.
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Dec. 23) Property yields rose further in Q3, but with risk-free rates now falling back, we think they will flat-line in Q4. That will help stabilise capital values, but given historically narrow yield spreads... 18th December 2023 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Takeaways from our Property in 2024 roundtables This week, we held a series of property roundtable discussions with clients in our London office as part of our World in 2024 series. In this Update, we outline our thoughts on the most interesting... 14th December 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 23) All-property values are down by 12.5% since mid-2022, but we expect an eventual decline of above 20%. Much of the correction at the all-property level is driven by our forecast for cap rates to go... 4th December 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Data centres to remain non-core, despite AI boost Our AI work has identified data centres as a clear winner from these innovations. That the sector is already in rude health is borne out by the latest real estate data. But it remains to be seen if it... 30th November 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Decline in risk-free rates to stabilize returns Property yields rose further in Q3, but with risk-free rates now falling back, we think they will peak by the end of 2023. That will help stabilize capital values, but, given historically narrow yield... 24th November 2023 · 23 mins read
UK Commercial Property Focus Investment well placed to recover in 2024 Surging interest rates have not been kind to commercial property investment activity, which recently slumped to a 10-year low. But there are some reasons to think transactions will see a decent, if... 16th November 2023 · 14 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (Oct) The second consecutive monthly decline in outstanding commercial real estate loan balances held by US banks in October means the data are starting to reflect the pullback in real estate lending that... 13th November 2023 · 2 mins read
