UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jul 24)

6th August 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Update

Elevated insurance premiums continue to hit valuations

The rise in severe weather events over the last five years has left property insurers scrambling to price-in physical risks, causing premium growth to reach a 20-year high. While we think the worst is...

31st July 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Industrial sentiment worsens in Q2 RICS survey

While headline balances saw little movement, digging deeper the Q2 RICS survey shows a reversal of last quarter’s more positive outlook. Indeed, respondents seem more downbeat, with almost half now...

25th July 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Lending surveys point to weak recovery in transactions

Recent surveys of real estate lenders paint a picture of a European lending market that is still seized up, as loan terms tightened and credit demand fell in H1. Lenders are optimistic that demand for...

23rd July 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Distress rising, but still a long way to go

With the share of non-performing CMBS loans on the rise, and plenty of loans set to refinance onto a higher rate this year, recent data provide further evidence that distress will rise both this year...

18th July 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Jul. 24)

Yields look to have topped out in most sectors and alongside solid rental growth that means capital values are close to bottoming out. However, with no yield compression in sight the recovery will be...

17th July 2024 · 1 min read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jun 24)

The headline CIPS construction PMI edged back in June from its two-year high last month, but at 52.2 remains in expansionary territory. Both the commercial and housing balances retreated, with the...

4th July 2024 · 1 min read

Global Commercial Property Chart Pack

Global Commercial Property Chartpack

The slower adjustment to past rises in interest rates and a sharper hit to office demand is set to weigh on US property returns over the next couple of years. Overall, the UK is set to outperform over...

3rd July 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Update

CMBS losses not a sign of widespread debt crisis

News that some top-rated CMBS in both the US and Europe are set to make losses is in line with our previous view that distress will ramp up in 2024. But, to date, the troubled securities have all been...

27th June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Why we think yield compression will be limited

With inflation back to target the stage is set for a decline in interest rates. Indeed, we think that the 10-year gilt yield will have dropped to 3% by end-26. But we don’t think that will lead to...

21st June 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

End of the correction in sight, but outlook remains gloomy

The price correction showed signs of stabilisation in early 2024, but we think further, albeit much smaller, value falls are to come as yields edge a bit higher. Values should bottom by year-end, but...

13th June 2024 · 32 mins read

US Commercial Property Outlook

Property values on course to fall by more than 25%

The market remains in the doldrums, with the mood negative and activity weak. We think this summer could be the bottom for transactions, but we still see valuations needing to fall by another 12% from...

11th June 2024 · 21 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to commercial property (Apr. 24)

Following two consecutive quarters of declines, net lending to property reached £891m in April. But looking through the monthly volatility, net lending totalled just £692m over the past three months...

31st May 2024 · 1 min read

UK Commercial Property Outlook

Residential outperforms within a modest recovery

Capital values for most property sectors are now close to bottoming out, but with yields set for a period of stability the recovery will be modest by past standards. We expect all-property total...

30th May 2024 · 27 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Rising distress points to further value falls in Germany

While German property yields stabilised in Q1, further indications of rising distress give us confidence in our view that property values there have not yet reached the bottom.

29th May 2024 · 3 mins read