US Commercial Property Outlook

Total returns to turn positive in 2025, but offices still weigh

The backdrop to our new real estate forecasts is a small reduction in our GDP forecasts and higher level of interest rates than previously. This weighs on the outlook, and we have trimmed our total...

12th December 2024 · 20 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

Rental growth the key driver of the property recovery

The recovery in property values is underway. But we think it will be a weak one, even though several European central banks, including the ECB, are forecast to cut interest rates to a lower level than...

12th December 2024 · 27 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

What’s keeping real estate investors awake at night?

A vast share of our clients highlighted geopolitics and/or Trump as their biggest blind spots going into 2025 when polled at our recent London roundtables. Meanwhile, a large majority thought that...

9th December 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

No holiday cheer for CRE debt

Our expectation of rising evidence of distressed assets in 2024 has come to bear, but we think more is still to come over the next couple of years. Some of that will stem from matured loans requiring...

5th December 2024 · 6 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Nov. 24)

The headline CIPS construction PMI increased to 55.2 in November, from 54.3 in October, indicating an expansion of construction activity.

5th December 2024 · 1 min read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to commercial property (Oct. 24)

Net lending to property totalled £1.21bn in October, marking the third consecutive month of net lending exceeding £1bn.

29th November 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Chart Pack

US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 24)

All-property values are down 18% from their mid-2022 peaks. And with appraisal-based cap rates still set to tick higher, we expect further small falls in values. That should take the peak-to-trough...

25th November 2024 · 1 min read

UK Commercial Property Outlook

Budget measures to weaken property recovery

The fiscal loosening announced in October’s Budget means inflation and gilt yields are now set to be higher than previously expected over the next few years. And with the spread of gilt yields over...

22nd November 2024 · 26 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 2024)

Stable property yields and solid rental growth supported a second rise in prime all-property values in Q3. While there is still likely to be upward pressure on yields in some markets, property values...

21st November 2024 · 0 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Investment to pick up but remain sluggish in 2025

The recovery in euro-zone real estate investment has been weak in 2024, with total activity in the first three quarters little changed on 2023’s near-record-lows. However, prospects for 2025 are...

20th November 2024 · 5 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Q3 RICS survey suggests market has bottomed

The Q3 RICS commercial property survey suggests a recovery is on its way with improvements in both the occupier and investment market headline balances and the majority of respondents believing the...

31st October 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Has the Budget derailed the CRE recovery?

We doubt the sell-off in gilts following the Budget will gather momentum and cause another step down in commercial property values. However, given the current narrow spread between risk-free interest...

31st October 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

RICS survey highlights uneven nature of recovery

The Q3 RICS commercial survey painted a somewhat mixed picture of the market. There was a slight improvement in investment and capital value expectations, but rental expectations were revised down...

31st October 2024 · 3 mins read

Event

CRE Drop-In: The residential outlook – Europe vs the US and the case for outperformance

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Residential’s growing share of investor portfolios speaks to the buzz around its potential to keep providing outsized returns. But will residential continue to deliver?

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to commercial property (Sep. 24)

Net lending to property totalled £1.33bn in September, essentially unchanged from the previous month.

29th October 2024 · 1 min read