Canada Economics Update Bank puts up high bar for 50bp cut Following its third consecutive 25bp interest rate cut today, the communications from the Bank of Canada reiterated that further cuts are likely. We expect 25 bp cuts at the final two meetings this... 4th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Sep. 2024) Following its third consecutive 25bp interest rate cut today, the communications from the Bank of Canada reiterated that further interest rate cuts are likely. The tone of the communications was less... 4th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 5.75%, was widely expected by analysts, and the incoming data are supporting our view that there won’t be scope... 4th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: lessons from history point to Q1 rate cut Attention in Egypt is turning to the timing of the first interest rate cut. The lessons from the start of the last easing cycle in 2018 suggest that this is likely to begin in Q1, which is a little... 3rd September 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly New bosses for Pemex and the BCB The nomination of Gabriel Galípolo, an ally of President Lula, as the next head of Brazil’s central bank has raised concerns about the politicisation of monetary policy (and a dovish tilt). But... 30th August 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Libya’s crisis, Egypt’s central bank meeting The oil market was rocked by two political shocks in the past week: an exchange of missiles between Israel and Hezbollah and a crisis in Libya, which led to cuts to its oil output. At the margin, the... 29th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Another meeting, another 25bp cut The dovish communication following the last meeting and the encouraging July CPI report leave little doubt that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates again next week. A 25bp cut, to 4.25%... 28th August 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The decision by the Bank of Israel (BoI) to leave its policy rate on hold again today (at 4.50%) rather than resume the easing cycle, reflects policymakers’ concerns with supply-side constraints in... 28th August 2024 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (August 2024) The economy is on course to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on course to become the world’s third-largest economy in the next couple of years. Headline CPI... 27th August 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The Hungarian central bank suggested that its decision to leave the policy rate on hold today, at 6.75%, was likely to mark a temporary pause in the easing cycle, rather than an end to it. Even so, we... 27th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Ceasefire latest, CBE governor stays on, PIF annual report The US government has pushed for a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas this week, but an agreement seems some way off still. A deal would benefit Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, whose economies... 22nd August 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update BoK set to loosen policy by more than most expect The Bank of Korea left rates on hold again today but sounded very dovish. With policymakers now more confident about achieving their inflation target and domestic demand set to remain weak, we think... 22nd August 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Korea Policy Rate (August 2024) The decision by the Bank of Korea to leave interest rates unchanged (at 3.5%) today came as no surprise, but of more interest will be the tone of Governor Rhee’s press conference and the central bank... 22nd August 2024 · 1 min read
Asia Rapid Response BI hints at rate cuts in Q4 Bank Indonesia today left its policy rate unchanged at 6.25%, but the central bank’s dovish commentary supports our view that rates will be cut before the end of the year. We expect the central bank... 21st August 2024 · 2 mins read
