Europe Economics Update Riksbank to continue loosening policy this year Unlike their counterparts in the Fed, policymakers at the Riksbank have ruled out making a bumper 50bp rate cut anytime soon. Instead, they are likely to cut their key policy rate by 25bp at next week... 18th September 2024 · 5 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will stick to hawkish message The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably stick to its hawkish message at its upcoming meeting. And while GDP growth is set to disappoint the Bank’s optimistic projections, it will take a clear... 17th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE easing cycles still likely to be slow from here While interest rate cuts by the ECB this week and the Fed next week, as well as the fall in oil prices, could set the stage for more monetary easing in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), we still think... 13th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly October cut possible, but December still more likely Post-meeting comments by ECB policymakers suggest that the bar for another rate cut in October is high, with December the most likely option. Meanwhile, the ECB’s new GDP projections still look too... 13th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The decision by the Russian central bank to hike its policy rate today by 100bp, to 19.00%, suggests that policymakers are even more concerned about the inflation outlook than we’d previously thought... 13th September 2024 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch Slow pace of rate cuts initially, before quickening next year We agree with the widespread expectation that the 25 basis point (bps) cut in interest rates in August will be followed by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) leaving rates at 5.00% on Thursday 19th... 13th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We expect euro-zone yields to bounce back a bit Today’s decision by the ECB to cut the deposit rate by 25bp was widely anticipated, and even the press conference provided little new information. We stand by our view that too much easing is now... 12th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to leave door open for December rate cut Inflation keeps falling more quickly than Norges Bank’s forecasts but policymakers will be uneasy about the renewed weakening of the krone. We expect them to repeat that the policy rate will be... 12th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank will deliver final rate hike in October The Bank of Japan will keep policy settings unchanged at its September meeting and will probably keep describing financial markets as unstable. However, recent data should have strengthened the Bank’s... 12th September 2024 · 8 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed to kick off loosening cycle with a 25bp cut With the labour market data more consistent with an economic slowdown rather than a collapse, we think the Fed will begin its rate cutting cycle with a measured 25bp reduction at next week’s FOMC... 11th September 2024 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Mr Brexit and France’s €16bn fiscal hole France’s new prime minister, Michel Barnier, will have his work cut out trying to pass a budget that will bring the deficit down to levels acceptable to the European Commission. Meanwhile, the latest... 6th September 2024 · 6 mins read
