Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT underwhelms with hike, but policy shift on track The 650bp interest rate hike by Turkey’s central bank today (to 15.0%) will underwhelm investors that wanted a faster and more aggressive monetary tightening. The currency has come under a bit of... 22nd June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE bares its teeth, but needs to bite harder The 50 basis point (bps) interest rate rise by the Bank of England today, from 4.50% to a near 15-year high of 5.00%, is unlikely to be the last hike given the UK’s higher and longer lasting inflation... 22nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (22nd June) 22nd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank will ignore “Beyoncé theory” and raise rates Some observers have suggested that the strength of Swedish inflation in May reflected buoyant demand driven by Beyoncé’s Stockholm concerts but the Riksbank is more likely to view it as evidence that... 22nd June 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB hikes by 25bp and signals more to come The 25bp rate hike announced by the SNB this morning was smaller than the 50bp hike we had predicted. But the accompanying statement and upward revision to inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025... 22nd June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Meeting (Forecast Change) In response to May’s inflation data, released earlier today, we now expect the MPC to raise interest rates by 50bps to 5.00% at tomorrow’s meeting. 21st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish ECB, weak economy The ECB’s messaging this week was hawkish and suggests that the risks are skewed towards the ECB’s deposit rate rising above our forecast to a peak of 3.75%. Recent data support the Bank’s view that... 16th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update Policy to remain ultra-loose The Bank of Japan left its monetary policy settings and assessment of the economy unchanged today. As inflation is unlikely to be sustained at or above target for the foreseeable future, we’re still... 16th June 2023 · 3 mins read
BoE Watch Rates heading to 5.25% The recent persistence of inflation leads us to think that the Bank of England will proceed with another 25 basis point (bps) rise in Bank Rate from 4.50% to 4.75% next Thursday and ultimately raise... 15th June 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Fed pauses, but eyes 50bp in additional rate hikes As expected, the Fed held its policy rate unchanged at between 5.00% and 5.25% today, but it made clear in the accompanying statement that pause was only to allow officials to “assess additional... 15th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: Pause not an end to monetary tightening Pakistan’s central bank (SBP) left its main policy rate unchanged today at 21%, but we think this represents a pause rather than an end to the SBP’s tightening cycle. With inflation well above target... 12th June 2023 · 3 mins read
