US Fed Watch One last hurrah for the hawks Fed officials appear set on another 25bp rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting, which would take the fed funds rate to a 22-year high of 5.25%-5.50%. But a run of softer inflation readings over the... 19th July 2023 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update BoK to change course soon The Bank of Korea today left interest rates unchanged (at 3.5%) and the accompanying statement and press conference were more hawkish than we had anticipated. Accordingly, we are pushing back the... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update 5.0% likely to be the peak The Bank of Canada’s 25bp hike today, taking the policy rate to 5.0%, is likely to be the last in this cycle. With the labour market loosening, core inflation falling and the survey indicators... 12th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s hiking cycle is over The decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to leave rates on hold at 5.50% came as a surprise to no one. Indeed, the Committee noted that monetary policy in New Zealand had turned restrictive far... 12th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Pay hikes in collective bargaining agreements soar Notwithstanding the RBA's decision to leave rates on hold on Tuesday, we still expect the Bank to deliver three more 25bp rate hikes before bringing its tightening cycle to an end. Indeed, the case... 7th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch A final 25 bp hike The easing of core inflation pressures in May and the decline in inflation expectations means the case for another interest rate hike is not as strong as it seemed a few weeks ago. Nonetheless, with... 5th July 2023 · 6 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ to stay put, rate cuts only in Q1 2024 Having raised rates more aggressively than any other developed market central bank, we think the RBNZ’s tightening cycle is now over. The Bank has already succeeded in sending the economy into... 5th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Tightening cycle not over yet The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to keep rates unchanged at 4.10% today suggests that interest rates may not rise all the way to 4.85% as we expect, but further tightening still seems likely. 4th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Jul. 23) 4th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (June 2023) The 25bp rate hike announced by the Riksbank today, which brings the key policy rate to 3.75%, had been strongly signalled at the Riksbank’s last meeting. But the accompanying statement and decisions... 29th June 2023 · 2 mins read
