Bank of Canada Watch A final 25 bp hike The easing of core inflation pressures in May and the decline in inflation expectations means the case for another interest rate hike is not as strong as it seemed a few weeks ago. Nonetheless, with... 5th July 2023 · 6 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ to stay put, rate cuts only in Q1 2024 Having raised rates more aggressively than any other developed market central bank, we think the RBNZ’s tightening cycle is now over. The Bank has already succeeded in sending the economy into... 5th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Tightening cycle not over yet The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to keep rates unchanged at 4.10% today suggests that interest rates may not rise all the way to 4.85% as we expect, but further tightening still seems likely. 4th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Jul. 23) 4th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (June 2023) The 25bp rate hike announced by the Riksbank today, which brings the key policy rate to 3.75%, had been strongly signalled at the Riksbank’s last meeting. But the accompanying statement and decisions... 29th June 2023 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch Cash rate will peak at 4.85% by September While headline inflation plunged in May, we doubt that this will have assuaged the Bank’s concerns about soaring unit labour costs and rising inflation expectations. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our... 28th June 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT underwhelms with hike, but policy shift on track The 650bp interest rate hike by Turkey’s central bank today (to 15.0%) will underwhelm investors that wanted a faster and more aggressive monetary tightening. The currency has come under a bit of... 22nd June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE bares its teeth, but needs to bite harder The 50 basis point (bps) interest rate rise by the Bank of England today, from 4.50% to a near 15-year high of 5.00%, is unlikely to be the last hike given the UK’s higher and longer lasting inflation... 22nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (22nd June) 22nd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank will ignore “Beyoncé theory” and raise rates Some observers have suggested that the strength of Swedish inflation in May reflected buoyant demand driven by Beyoncé’s Stockholm concerts but the Riksbank is more likely to view it as evidence that... 22nd June 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB hikes by 25bp and signals more to come The 25bp rate hike announced by the SNB this morning was smaller than the 50bp hike we had predicted. But the accompanying statement and upward revision to inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025... 22nd June 2023 · 3 mins read