Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Oct. 2023) 3rd October 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update The impact of tighter policy on financial stability By putting upward pressure on JGB yields and the yen, tighter monetary policy could lead to falls in the value of bonds and overseas assets held by Japanese investors. Insurance companies and pension... 3rd October 2023 · 4 mins read
RBI Watch Late to the EM rate-cutting party We agree with consensus expectations that the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Friday 6 th October. Further ahead, our view is that the RBI will begin loosening... 29th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ Board members starting to call for tighter policy The minutes of the Bank of Japan's July meeting showed a lively debate about the outlook for prices and monetary policy. While many Board members believe that the Bank will have to keep policy loose... 29th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to tighten policy as upside risks dominate Data released this week have been a mixed bag, which means that the RBA's policy decision next week will once again come down to the wire. With job vacancies falling and household cash flows starting... 29th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) Mexico’s central bank, as widely expected, left its policy rate unchanged at 11.25% at today’s Board meeting and the accompanying statement remained very hawkish. We think Banxico will be the last... 28th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The Czech National bank (CNB) left interest rates on hold again at 7.00% today, but we think that an easing cycle will probably begin at the next meeting in November. 27th September 2023 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to hike again, rate cuts only in Q2 2024 Stronger-than-expected GDP and inflation data should cement the case for the RBA to deliver a final 25bp rate hike at its meeting next week. Given the shifting balance of risks, we think the Bank will... 27th September 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Aug. 23) With Australia’s disinflationary process stalling, there’s a growing risk that the Reserve Bank of Australia will resume rate hikes in Q4. 27th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB entering the second phase of the easing cycle The Hungarian central bank (MNB) delivered another 100bp interest rate cut (to 13.00%) and simplified its monetary policy toolkit at today’s meeting, paving the way for the second phase of the easing... 26th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The Hungarian central bank’s (MNB’s) decision to cut the top of its interest rate corridor, by 250bp, today is a first step in what is likely to be a shift in the monetary policy framework that will... 26th September 2023 · 2 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will deliver another hawkish hold Although economic activity has held up reasonably well thus far, we still think it will see another leg down. Accordingly, we’re sticking with our view that the RBNZ won’t lift rates any higher. That... 26th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Key questions after the latest central bank meetings We held a Drop-In yesterday to discuss the latest policy meetings of the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England and what they might mean for the future path of policy and financial markets. (See the recording... 22nd September 2023 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Government benefitting from higher inflation for now We previously argued that political pressure is one reason to expect the Bank of Japan to tighten policy. However, we suspect the government's stance on inflation has become more ambiguous. While... 22nd September 2023 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will call time on loose policy next year The Bank of Japan still sounded dovish when it kept policy settings unchanged today. But with inflation proving stickier than expected, we expect the Bank to lift its policy rate in January and have... 22nd September 2023 · 3 mins read
