US Fed Watch Still on course for rate cuts next year We don’t expect a significant change in tone from the Fed next week, with rates on hold but officials keeping the option of further tightening on the table. That said, the surge in long-term Treasury... 25th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The Hungarian central bank’s (MNB’s) larger-than-expected 75bp cut to its base rate, from 13.00% to 12.25%, today suggests that policymakers are sticking to aggressive monetary easing. Our working... 24th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Forecast revisions won’t prompt tighter policy just yet The Bank of Japan will lift its growth and inflation forecasts at the upcoming meeting, but we think that it will wait for further signs that strong wage growth continues before tightening policy any... 24th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI: FX worries mean rate cuts unlikely for now The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate on hold at 4.75% today and, while its communications provided little firm policy guidance, policymakers clearly have one eye on the currency and will... 23rd October 2023 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank on hold, may push back QT end date The business surveys point to rising recession risks and core inflation pressures were muted in September, suggesting that there is little chance of the Bank of Canada raising interest rates next week... 18th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Singapore Monetary Policy Announcement, Q3 GDP (Adv) The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept monetary policy settings unchanged today which was in line with both our and consensus expectations. While another hold is likely in January, further... 13th October 2023 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update RBI stands firm in fight against inflation The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone despite the recent easing in inflation. Indeed, it even raised the possibility of open-market bond... 6th October 2023 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response RBI Policy Announcement (Oct.) The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone despite the recent easing in headline inflation. There is still a significant risk of the easing... 6th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) kept its main policy rate unchanged at 7.00% today, and we expect policy to remain on hold into next year. The NBR will be the last in Central and Eastern Europe to... 5th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The National Bank of Poland’s (NBP’s) decision to cut interest rates again today, from 6.00% to 5.75%, suggests that the doves are ruling the roost on the MPC, but we think that interest rates... 4th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s next move will be down With its assessment of the balance of risks broadly unchanged, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates on hold at its meeting today. Although the Bank will likely retain its tightening bias, we... 4th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Interest rates haven’t reached their peak yet While new RBA Governor Michelle Bullock didn’t spring any surprises at her first interest rate decision today, we think that the Bank will hike interest rates to a peak of 4.35% at its next meeting in... 3rd October 2023 · 3 mins read
