Capital Daily We still expect a Fed-fuelled Treasury rally We remain of the view that investors are overestimating how high the federal funds rate will be over the next couple of years, and that Treasury yields will fall as a result. 20th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) Russia’s central bank (CBR) raised its policy rate by 100bp, to 13.00%, at today’s meeting and with the ruble likely to remain under pressure and inflation pressures to keep building, we think further... 15th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will hike policy rate in January Following hawkish comments by BoJ Governor Ueda, we now expect the Bank to lift its policy rate for the first time in sixteen years in January. The Bank could call time on Yield Curve Control at the... 15th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily EZ assets may underperform amid “higher for longer” We think that the ECB is more likely than the Fed to keep rates “higher for longer”, even as the euro-zone heads for a recession. That is one reason why we expect core euro-zone bond yields to fall by... 14th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update A coin toss decision for the SNB On balance, we think the SNB will look through the recent low inflation and hike rates by 25bp one last time to 2.00%, given policymakers’ previous hawkish commentary. But with the economy stagnating... 14th September 2023 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response PBOC cuts reserve requirements The People’s Bank has just announced a cut to bank reserve requirements. With private sector credit demand still weak, this is a gesture rather than a meaningful support measure. Substantial rate cuts... 14th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (September 2023) The ECB’s decision to raise interest rates by a further 25bp today probably brings the current tightening cycle to an end. But given the strength of underlying inflation, we expect rates to remain at... 14th September 2023 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch One last hike We think that a 25 basis point (bps) rise in interest rates, from 5.25% to 5.50%, at the Bank of England’s policy meeting on Thursday 21st September will be the last hike in this cycle and that sticky... 14th September 2023 · 8 mins read
US Fed Watch Easing inflation to drive rates sharply lower next year The Fed is set to keep rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% at the FOMC meeting next week and the new projections could show that plans for further hikes have been scrapped. We continue to expect the Fed’s... 13th September 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession risk looms over ECB meeting Christine Lagarde and her colleagues will have some new and gloomy data releases to contemplate when they gather in Frankfurt next week. Indeed, the euro-zone economy looks likely to be slipping into... 8th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Malaysia: Monetary Policy Meeting (September) The decision by Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) to leave the overnight policy rate unchanged at 3.0% came as no surprise. Despite the poor near term outlook for economic growth, we expect BNM to remain... 7th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada’s next move likely to be a rate cut The Bank of Canada accompanied its decision to leave interest rates unchanged with a pledge to hike again if needed, but we doubt it will need to follow through. With recession risks rising and labour... 6th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut rates as soon as early-2024 The RBA retained its tightening bias when it kept interest rates unchanged at 4.10% today. However, we think the Bank’s next move will be a rate cut, perhaps as early as the first quarter of next year... 5th September 2023 · 3 mins read