Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The Czech National Bank (CNB) maintained a hawkish tone as it started its easing cycle today, but we still think that interest rates will be lowered by a further 300bp next year (from 6.75% to 3.75%)... 21st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) delivered a 250bp interest rate hike, to 42.50%, at today’s meeting and didn’t close the door on the tightening cycle. We’ve now pencilled in one more 250bp hike at the... 21st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) cut its base rate by 75bp again today (to 10.75%), and we think it will probably continue to lower rates at this pace over its next few meetings. However, we expect... 19th December 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE too hawkish, investors have gone too far the other way We agree with investors that the Bank of England's stance this week was overly hawkish. Even so, we think investors are over-estimating how quickly rates will be cut. Given the UK economy is not as... 15th December 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) 15th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) Mexico’s central bank left interest rates unchanged at 11.25% again today and there was no further tilt away from the hawkish bias in the accompanying statement. The likelihood that Banxico will begin... 14th December 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (14 Dec. 2023) The Bank of England sprung no surprises, leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the third time in a row and pushing back against the prospect of near-term interest rate cuts. While the recent soft wage... 14th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank tightening cycle comes to an end Today’s decision by Norges Bank to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 4.50% marks the end of its tightening cycle. Looking ahead, we have pencilled in a faster pace of rate cuts next year than... 14th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Dovish hold by SNB, policy loosening imminent Today’s SNB decision and statement were largely in line with expectations as the policy rate was held at 1.75% and policymakers removed any mention of FX sales. We think the latter decision signals... 14th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norges Bank Policy Announcement (Dec. 2023) Today’s decision by Norges Bank to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 4.50% marks the end of its tightening cycle. Looking ahead, we have pencilled in a faster pace of rate cuts next year than... 14th December 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (Dec. 2023) The SNB kept rates on hold at 1.75% at today’s policy meeting, but the monetary policy statement was dovish as policymakers placed less emphasis on selling FX assets and reduced their inflation... 14th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Rate cuts likely from June 2024 Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left its policy rate unchanged again today, but with economic growth set to slow sharply and inflation on its way down, we expect the CBC to start cutting rates from June. 14th December 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Fed's intransigence typical ahead of a turning point The Fed’s reluctance to acknowledge that it will need to begin cutting its policy rate soon – to prevent a run-up in real rates – was predictable enough based on its intransigence ahead of previous... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank will end negative rates in January The Bank of Japan is increasingly keen to abolish negative interest rates and we think the most likely venue is the Bank’s January meeting. However, we only expect one interest rate hike to 0.1% as... 12th December 2023 · 8 mins read
