Japan Economics Update Policy normalisation is in sight The Bank of Japan sounds increasingly confident that it will be able to achieve its inflation target on a sustained basis. With Mr Ueda at the post-BOJ-meeting press conference again emphasising the... 23rd January 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: easing cycle not over yet The Central Bank of Sri Lanka left its deposit rate on hold (at 9.00%) today, and gave no hints at what its next move would be. However, with inflation set to remain low and growth likely to struggle... 23rd January 2024 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Rate cuts are coming, albeit a little later The acceleration in the CPI-trim and CPI-median measures of core inflation in December suggests the Bank of Canada will maintain a hawkish tone next week, but those measures are arguably overstating... 17th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank will lift policy rate to 0.1% in March The Bank of Japan may revise up its medium-term inflation forecasts at the upcoming meeting but will almost certainly leave policy settings unchanged. We expect the Bank to lift its policy rate to 0.1... 16th January 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate unchanged at 7.00% today and, although a monetary easing cycle seems to be drawing nearer, we think that interest rates are unlikely to be cut... 12th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold again today, at 5.75%, and we continue to think that the scope for monetary loosening ahead is relatively limited. While the consensus... 9th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Bank of Israel cuts rates, Turkey’s rebalancing in focus Israel's central bank started its monetary easing cycle this week with a 25bp interest rate cut - a move that came a bit sooner than we'd expected. But inflation risks are greater than most anticipate... 5th January 2024 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will wait until March before hiking rates Bank of Japan Governor Ueda indicated this week that the Bank won’t make any policy changes at its upcoming meeting in January as it wants to see the results of next year’s spring wage negotiations... 22nd December 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The Czech National Bank (CNB) maintained a hawkish tone as it started its easing cycle today, but we still think that interest rates will be lowered by a further 300bp next year (from 6.75% to 3.75%)... 21st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) delivered a 250bp interest rate hike, to 42.50%, at today’s meeting and didn’t close the door on the tightening cycle. We’ve now pencilled in one more 250bp hike at the... 21st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) cut its base rate by 75bp again today (to 10.75%), and we think it will probably continue to lower rates at this pace over its next few meetings. However, we expect... 19th December 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE too hawkish, investors have gone too far the other way We agree with investors that the Bank of England's stance this week was overly hawkish. Even so, we think investors are over-estimating how quickly rates will be cut. Given the UK economy is not as... 15th December 2023 · 8 mins read
