Europe Economics Update Riksbank to buck the trend and hike again While the world’s major central banks now appear to have ended their tightening cycles, we think the Riksbank will raise its policy rate by 25bp again next week, to 4.25%, because of the strength of... 16th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ preparing the path for further policy changes Governor Ueda has this week been preparing the ground for the next steps in the BoJ’s retreat from ultra-loose policy. Stronger recent wage data and increasing pressure for further, larger pay hikes... 10th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) Mexico’s central bank sprung no surprises and left its policy rate at 11.25% at today’s Board meeting and the accompanying statement retained its hawkish bias. That said, there was a very modest hint... 9th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) 8th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) 8th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s next move will be down As had been widely expected, the RBA handed down a 25bp rate hike at its meeting today. With the cash rate now at 4.35%, we believe the Bank’s tightening cycle is over. If we’re right that the... 7th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Nov. 23) 7th November 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE doubles down on signal that rate cuts are far away The Bank’s decision to leave interest rates at 5.25% for the second time in a row and to double down on the message that rates cuts are far away supports our view that rates will stay at 5.25% until... 2nd November 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The Czech National Bank’s (CNB’s) decision to leave interest rates on hold again today, at 7.00%, was accompanied by communications which leave the chances of an interest rate cut at the next meeting... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (2nd Nov. 2023) The Bank’s decision to leave interest rates at 5.25% for the second time in a row and to double down on the message that rates cuts are far away supports our view that rates will stay at 5.25% until... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update BCB to continue to cut in 50bp steps Brazil’s central bank (BCB) cut the Selic rate by 50bp, to 12.25%, at yesterday’s Copom meeting and signalled again that further similar reductions lie in store over the next few meetings. Even so... 2nd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Malaysia Monetary Policy Decision (November) Despite the sharp downward pressure on the ringgit, Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) left policy rates unchanged (at 3.0%) today. We expect the central bank to keep the policy rate on hold for the rest... 2nd November 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Fed’s focus will shift to rate cuts before long By leaving rates unchanged while continuing to flag the possibility of further tightening to come, the Fed indicated today that it remains in ‘wait and see’ mode. But Chair Jerome Powell appeared to... 1st November 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank will end negative interest rates in early-2024 The Bank of Japan today de facto abolished Yield Curve Control and we think policymakers will call time on negative interest rates as soon as January. 31st October 2023 · 4 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hit the brakes once more With inflation surprising on the upside in Q3, we expect the RBA to lift rates by 25bp at its meeting next week. However, we suspect that the next rate hike will be the last one in the current cycle... 31st October 2023 · 8 mins read