US Fed Watch Fed will need to acknowledge plunging inflation soon With markets already convinced that the Fed’s tightening cycle is over, the focus at next week’s FOMC meeting will be on any clues as to how soon and how far rates will be cut. We suspect officials... 6th December 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold as expected today, and we think the easing cycle will remain on pause until the end of Q1. With the economy recovering and the... 6th December 2023 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch Bank to set the stage for 2024 rate cuts Policymakers will have no choice but to acknowledge next week that they may achieve their inflation target earlier than they had anticipated. Some may push back against expectations that the Bank will... 6th December 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA is done hiking rates Given the high bar for further rate hikes, we’re more confident than ever that the Reserve Bank of Australia is done tightening policy. That said, there is a good chance that the cash rate will remain... 5th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Dec. 23) 5th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Negative rates will end next year Following a strong 2023, GDP growth is set to slow towards potential next year and the labour market will tread water for now. However, with the virtuous cycle between consumer prices and inflation... 4th December 2023 · 18 mins read
RBI Watch RBI unlikely to loosen policy until H2 2024 We agree with consensus expectations that the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Friday 8 th December. Further ahead, robust economic growth and upside risks to... 30th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch A less hawkish hold The second consecutive month of muted core inflation pressures in October should have further reduced the Bank of Canada’s appetite for another interest rate hike. While markets are now in agreement... 29th November 2023 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch Tightening cycle is now over We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting on 5 th December. And while the resilience of trimmed mean inflation could prompt another 25bp rate... 29th November 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of New Zealand Meeting (Nov. 23) 29th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) Israel’s central bank left interest rates on hold at 4.75% again today and the communications continued to emphasise risks to the inflation outlook. But policymakers provided the first hint that an... 27th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB stands pat, but hawkish rhetoric remains The South African Reserve Bank opted against responding to last month’s larger-than-expected rise in inflation with an interest rate hike, leaving the repo rate unchanged at 8.25% today. But officials... 23rd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) delivered another 500bp interest rate hike, to 40.0%, at today’s meeting and suggested that it is very close to the end of the tightening cycle. A final 250bp hike in... 23rd November 2023 · 2 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will signal that tightening cycle is over The labour market is weakening in earnest and inflation is falling faster than anticipated. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand therefore won’t lift interest rate any further at its upcoming meeting on 29... 22nd November 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) cut its base rate by another 75bp (to 11.50%) as expected today, and we think it will continue to lower rates in similar steps until the end of Q1. That said, with the... 21st November 2023 · 2 mins read