Africa Economics Update

SARB keeping up the inflation fight

The South African Reserve Bank left its repo rate unchanged at 8.25% for a fifth consecutive meeting today and the continued hawkish rhetoric from Governor Kganyago supports our view that rate cuts...

27th March 2024 · 2 mins read

RBI Watch

Policy pivot creeping closer

We agree with consensus expectations that the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Friday 5 th April. Further ahead, we think the central bank will start cutting rates in...

27th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.)

The decision by the Hungarian central bank to slow the pace of its easing cycle today, with a 75bp cut to its base rate (to 8.25%) will probably be followed by a further slowdown in the pace of the...

26th March 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.)

Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its key policy rate on hold, at 16.00%, for a second consecutive meeting as expected today and there were few notable changes in its press statement. The central bank...

22nd March 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.)

Mexico’s central bank finally embarked on an easing cycle today, lowering its policy rate by 25bp to 11.00%, but the fact that the vote was split and that Banxico didn’t commit to further rate cuts...

21st March 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Update

Slight dovish tilt, and BoE will become more dovish before long

With the Bank of England striking a slightly more dovish tone whilst keeping interest rates at 5.25% and inflation likely to fall further and faster than the Bank expects, we still think a rate cut in...

21st March 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Flexible EGP on the rise, Morocco’s cautious central bank

The Egyptian pound has appreciated by 10% against the dollar in the past couple of weeks since its devaluation, providing hope that the CBE is finally following through with its commitment to a more...

21st March 2024 · 6 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Bank of England Policy Announcement (21st Mar. 2024)

The Bank of England sprung no surprises, leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the fifth time in a row and, despite no MPC members no longer voting to raise interest rates, it retained its relatively...

21st March 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Taiwan: surprise hike unlikely to be followed by further tightening

Despite the booming economy, inflationary pressures in Taiwan are likely to remain subdued. Accordingly, we think today’s unexpected rate hike by the central bank (CBC) will prove to be a case of one...

21st March 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.)

Turkey’s central bank unexpectedly raised its key policy rate by 500bp at today’s meeting, to 50.00%, and its hawkish communications leave open the possibility of another rate hike in April. With the...

21st March 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

SNB starts its loosening cycle, Norges Bank on hold

The SNB under Chairman Thomas Jordan has never shied away from making big calls, so it was fitting that it surprised markets with a 25bp rate cut today, to 1.5%, only three weeks after Mr Jordan...

21st March 2024 · 3 mins read

US Economics Update

Fed still on track for a June rate cut

Despite upward revisions to the median projections for both GDP growth and core PCE inflation, the Fed’s median forecast for interest rates still shows a cumulative 75bp of policy loosening this year...

20th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.)

The Czech National Bank cut its policy rate by 50bp again today, to 5.75%, and we think that it will continue easing policy throughout 2024. Our forecast for interest rates to fall to 3.50% by the end...

20th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Riksbank eyeing May for first rate cut

We think the Riksbank will leave its policy rate unchanged at 4.0% next week but cut it by 25bp at the following meeting, in May. Beyond that, our forecast is for rates to come down much faster than...

20th March 2024 · 5 mins read

Japan Economics Update

Ultra-loose policy ends but tightening cycle unlikely

The Bank of Japan today called time on more than a decade of ultra-loose policy settings, but we don’t think it will lift its policy rate any further over the coming months.

19th March 2024 · 3 mins read