Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan will deliver final rate hike in July Governor Ueda sounds keen on tightening policy further and we’re pencilling in another interest rate hike at the Bank of Japan’s July meeting. However, with underlying inflation set to fall below 2%... 22nd April 2024 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ still on track to cut rates in August Although the RBNZ toned down its hawkish bias at its meeting this week, markets seem to be worried the Bank will take its cue from the Fed and keep rates higher for longer. However, with domestic... 12th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Dovish ECB supports our view that Bund yields will fall back Today’s ECB policy announcement and press conference support our forecast for a June rate cut. Given that we expect more rate cuts than the money market discounts, we think that Bund yields will fall... 11th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to cut by 100bp this year The ECB’s decision to update its guidance suggests that an interest rate cut at the next meeting in June is very likely. Christine Lagarde would understandably not commit to a path of rate cuts, but... 11th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Can the BoE cut rates earlier and faster than the Fed? Even if the US Federal Reserve leaves its policy rate unchanged for longer than we expect, our forecast that inflation in the UK will be lower than in the US suggests this won’t prevent the Bank of... 11th April 2024 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Minutes (Mar. 19-20) The minutes of the March meeting suggest that there is still scope for at least a couple of interest rate cuts later this year and confirm that the Fed is likely to soon slow the pace of its balance... 10th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank leaves the door open for a June rate cut Governor Tiff Macklem sounded relatively dovish in the Bank of Canada’s press conference today, leaving the door open to an interest rate cut at the next meeting in June. 10th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ remains on the sidelines The Reserve Bank of New Zealand didn’t drop any hints as to when it might pivot to looser policy at its meeting today. However, as inflation risks recede, we still expect the Bank to start cutting... 10th April 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI policy pivot creeping closer The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected but the more interesting aspect was the slight dialling down of its hawkish rhetoric. With inflation grinding down towards the central... 5th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its policy rate on hold at 5.75% today as it looked through the recent sharp drop in inflation in March. We think a rebound in inflation in the second half of... 4th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) Romania’s central bank left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% as expected again today but with inflation likely to fall further, a monetary easing cycle is probably just around the corner. We maintain... 4th April 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will start loosening policy in Q3 We expect the RBNZ to hold rates steady at its meeting next Wednesday. But with the economy in a deep slump and inflation clearly on the way down, the Committee is likely to tone down its tightening... 3rd April 2024 · 5 mins read
