China Economics Weekly Monetary and fiscal policy turning more supportive Policymakers’ concerns about the near-term outlook have become much more visible over the past couple of weeks, with weak Q2 growth and poor stock market performance triggering rate cuts and talk of... 26th July 2024 · 7 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (July 2024) The recent set of mild inflation data and growing concerns among Fed officials about downside risks to the labour market reinforce our view that the first interest rate cut will come in September. We... 22nd July 2024 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Consumption support still falling short New government guidelines on how to create "new consumption scenarios" are still largely focused on supply-side reform, while little is being done to address demand weakness. Alongside a ramp-up in... 28th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA won’t cut interest rates until mid-2025 Activity has slowed to a standstill in both countries. Although output growth should gather momentum going forward, it will remain below its pre-pandemic average. However, with underlying inflation... 26th June 2024 · 20 mins read
US Economic Outlook Consumers beginning to feel the pinch We expect core inflation to be back to the 2% target by early next year, allowing the Fed to begin cutting interest rates from this September. GDP growth will remain a little lacklustre this year but... 25th June 2024 · 16 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (June 2024) The recent encouraging inflation data reinforce our view that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. We remain confident that core inflation is heading back to the 2% target, which should allow... 24th June 2024 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Economy in good shape as Modi 3.0 begins Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026. That would put India on course to become the world’s... 20th June 2024 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q1 2024) The modest rebound in GDP last quarter doesn’t change the bigger picture that the New Zealand economy is worse for wear. In fact, timely survey data suggest that things may well get worse before they... 19th June 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (May 2024) The strong rebound in manufacturing output in May was better than we expected but, given the softness of the earlier retail sales release, it does not change the big picture that second-quarter GDP... 18th June 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Morocco’s EVs to fuel auto boom, Aramco issuance The EU’s tariffs on EV imports from China may encourage Chinese firms to raise investments into Morocco, whose auto sector is growing rapidly on the back of expansion plans from both Chinese and... 13th June 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data indicate that capacity pressures have continued to ease, a trend... 22nd May 2024 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (May 2024) The slight easing of inflationary pressures in April and softer activity data are consistent with the Fed cutting interest rates in September. Although it is taking a little longer than expected, we... 21st May 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM savings problems not just a China story Some of the structural problems in China’s economy have their roots in its excessively high savings rate (and underconsumption). For many other EMs, savings rates are also a problem but for the... 21st May 2024 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) The recent upturn in activity and employment growth and the resilience of core inflation suggest that the Fed won't start cutting interest rates until later this year. But although it is taking a... 18th April 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s foreign investment struggles persist Saudi Arabia has yet to be able to raise foreign direct investment towards its Vision 2030 goals, prompting a turn to the Public Investment Fund (PIF) to prop up investment spending. Unless the... 17th April 2024 · 3 mins read
