Commodities Update China, not a US slowdown, the key for industrial metals Following another leg down in industrial metals prices, this time due to growing worries about a US recession and the broader financial market carnage, we still think that prices will fall further... 7th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Outlook Commodity prices to fall back We forecast most commodities prices to fall next year – despite falling interest rates and faster global GDP growth – as numerous supply constraints ease and a crunch in Chinese construction begins to... 27th June 2024 · 21 mins read
Commodities Weekly Metals prices still on shaky ground This week's weaker-than-expected activity data in China seems to be at odds with the broadly flat or slight increases in base metals prices this week. The big picture however is, that the data... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Focus How metals-hungry will the green transition be? The metals-intensive nature of green technologies will add to demand for a host of industrial and battery metals, with green demand for copper and aluminium likely to grow twice as quickly as... 23rd May 2024 · 17 mins read
Commodities Update Your latest commodities questions answered We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss geopolitical risk and the commodities price outlook. This Update answers several of the questions that we received. 10th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Metals Chart Pack Metals Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Metals Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The strong rally in industrial metals prices seems stretched and, as a result, we expect prices to... 7th May 2024 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Metals prices: a genuine breakout or overoptimism? In a mixed week for commodity prices, copper topped $10,000 per tonne for the first time since April 2022. This is the latest in what has been a rip-roaring start to the year for non-ferrous... 26th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Russian metal ban won’t rock the boat We think that any impact from the suspension of trading of Russian metal on the LME and CME is likely to be muted, given that trade flows have already shifted markedly and it is unlikely to impact... 15th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China property contraction to hit metals prices hard In light of our China team’s new non-consensus view that an aggressive slowdown in property sector construction seems almost inevitable in the years ahead, we have revised our price forecasts. We now... 10th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Global Aluminium Production (Feb.) The drop in global aluminium production in February should be a blip now that output curbs in China’s Yunnan province due to power constraints have been lifted. 20th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Global Aluminium Production (Jan.) Global aluminium production was unchanged in January compared to December. This reinforces our view that production growth will soften this year. 20th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Europe's aluminium industry not dead yet Higher aluminium prices and lower production costs should incentivise Europe’s smelters to restart some production in both 2024 and 2025. The introduction of CBAM in 2026 means prices will then... 15th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Metals Chart Pack Metals Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Our Metals Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Industrial metals demand will recover this year, boosted by rate cuts and stabilising economic... 2nd February 2024 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly China metals demand; EU weighing Russia metals ban It was generally a positive week for commodity prices and particularly for industrial metals prices. All major industrial metals finished the week higher, seemingly due to some improvement in risk... 26th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Real metals prices are high and have further to rise Compared to their pre-pandemic averages, metals prices are high even after adjusting for inflation. We think that as green transition-related demand increases and monetary easing gets underway, real... 25th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Global Aluminium Production (Dec. & 2023) Global aluminium production growth slowed to 2.3% in 2023 from 2.9% in 2022. We think softening output growth in China will cause global growth to fall back again this year. 22nd January 2024 · 2 mins read