Commodities Outlook

Soft demand + extra supply ⇒ lower prices

We expect most commodity prices to fall next year and our forecasts are generally below consensus. The biggest upside risk to our energy price forecasts stems from the potential for an escalation in...

24th September 2024 · 24 mins read

Commodities Focus

Metals: China slowdown to offset green transition

While the green transition and AI-related use will boost demand for industrial metals over the rest of this decade, we expect this to largely be offset by a substantial contraction in demand from...

19th September 2024 · 10 mins read

Commodities Update

China, not a US slowdown, the key for industrial metals

Following another leg down in industrial metals prices, this time due to growing worries about a US recession and the broader financial market carnage, we still think that prices will fall further...

7th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Outlook

Commodity prices to fall back

We forecast most commodities prices to fall next year – despite falling interest rates and faster global GDP growth – as numerous supply constraints ease and a crunch in Chinese construction begins to...

27th June 2024 · 21 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Metals prices still on shaky ground

This week's weaker-than-expected activity data in China seems to be at odds with the broadly flat or slight increases in base metals prices this week. The big picture however is, that the data...

21st June 2024 · 4 mins read

Industrial Metals Focus

How metals-hungry will the green transition be?

The metals-intensive nature of green technologies will add to demand for a host of industrial and battery metals, with green demand for copper and aluminium likely to grow twice as quickly as...

23rd May 2024 · 17 mins read

Commodities Update

Your latest commodities questions answered

We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss geopolitical risk and the commodities price outlook. This Update answers several of the questions that we received.

10th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Metals Chart Pack

Metals Chart Pack (May 2024)

Our Metals Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The strong rally in industrial metals prices seems stretched and, as a result, we expect prices to...

7th May 2024 · 1 min read

Commodities Weekly

Metals prices: a genuine breakout or overoptimism?

In a mixed week for commodity prices, copper topped $10,000 per tonne for the first time since April 2022. This is the latest in what has been a rip-roaring start to the year for non-ferrous...

26th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Russian metal ban won’t rock the boat

We think that any impact from the suspension of trading of Russian metal on the LME and CME is likely to be muted, given that trade flows have already shifted markedly and it is unlikely to impact...

15th April 2024 · 2 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

China property contraction to hit metals prices hard

In light of our China team’s new non-consensus view that an aggressive slowdown in property sector construction seems almost inevitable in the years ahead, we have revised our price forecasts. We now...

10th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Global Aluminium Production (Feb.)

The drop in global aluminium production in February should be a blip now that output curbs in China’s Yunnan province due to power constraints have been lifted.

20th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Global Aluminium Production (Jan.)

Global aluminium production was unchanged in January compared to December. This reinforces our view that production growth will soften this year.

20th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Europe's aluminium industry not dead yet

Higher aluminium prices and lower production costs should incentivise Europe’s smelters to restart some production in both 2024 and 2025. The introduction of CBAM in 2026 means prices will then...

15th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Metals Chart Pack

Metals Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Our Metals Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Industrial metals demand will recover this year, boosted by rate cuts and stabilising economic...

2nd February 2024 · 1 min read