Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish recovery leading the way Q1 2010 GDP data from Turkey reaffirm our view that it will be the best performing economy in the region over the next year or so. However, while the pace of recovery should continue to impress in the... 30th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets still overstating pace of tightening (Jun 10) Marek Belka was recently sworn in as the new President of the National Bank of Poland, and his impressive credentials as a former head of the IMF’s European Department make him a safe pair of hands... 18th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone crisis adds to recovery headwinds (Q2 2010) Problems in the euro-zone’s periphery will exacerbate the twin-speed recovery already underway in Emerging Europe. No country would escape unscathed from a full-blown crisis in Western Europe, but... 16th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Q1 GDP data a mixed bag (May 10) First quarter GDP data, released by most countries over the past month or so, paint a mixed picture. The highly open economies of Central Europe – notably Slovakia – continue to rebound at a fairly... 25th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Politics comes into play in Hungary (May 10) Concerns that the new government in Hungary will jeopardise the independence of the National Bank appear to be coming to fruition. While much remains uncertain, it seems clear that PM Orban will now... 18th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish fiscal rule offers hope, but onus still on policymakers Today’s announcement of a seemingly well-designed and sensible fiscal rule in Turkey is an encouraging sign that the government is trying to get to grips with the public finances. But while a rules... 11th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: on course for a strong bounce-back March’s industrial production data from Turkey round off an impressive start of the year for the economy. In light of other positive data releases over recent weeks, we have raised our GDP forecast to... 10th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Contagion risks from Greece high and rising (Apr 10) Concerns over the deepening crisis in Greece have weighed on financial markets across the region over the past couple of weeks. While no country has escaped, the contagion risks appear greatest in... 30th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: fiscal rule not the last word on budget discipline In the absence of a new IMF programme, a fiscal rule could help to reassure markets that Turkey remains committed to maintaining fiscal discipline. But even a well designed fiscal rule requires... 19th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Changes at the top do not change outlook for policy (Apr 10) Both Poland and the Czech Republic are set to announce new Central Bank governors over the coming months. But we suspect this will do little to alter the policy bias in either country. Poland will be... 15th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Turkey sets out its exit strategy Earlier today the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) outlined its exit strategy from the additional liquidity measures it introduced during the economic crisis. These include plans to switch to a new... 14th April 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will the rise in Turkish consumer spending boost retail rents? The fact that Turkish household consumption growth turned positive in Q4 is encouraging news for retailer occupier demand. But it needs to be set against the substantial increase in supply expected... 7th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey set to lead the region’s recovery Q4 2009 GDP data from Turkey support our view that it will be one of the best performing economies in the region over the next few years. Nonetheless, while growth should impress in the near-term, Q4... 31st March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Too soon to dismiss fiscal risks (Mar 10) Financial markets in Emerging Europe have, for the most part, brushed off sovereign debt concerns in the euro-zone’s periphery. While bond markets sold off earlier this year as the crisis in Greece... 29th March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rates hikes still not imminent (Mar 10) Market rate expectations have edged down in recent weeks, but we still think that the pace of tightening currently priced in for most countries in the region is too aggressive. While inflation has... 19th March 2010 · 1 min read
