Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: is an IMF deal imminent? Recent quotes from leading policymakers suggesting that Turkey is in advanced talks with the IMF should be taken with a pinch of salt, particularly as negotiations have already dragged on for over a... 7th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack 2009: a year to forget or a spur for reform? (Dec 09) Twenty years after the fall of Communism, 2009 should have been a year to celebrate in Eastern Europe. Instead, it looks like a year to forget. The region was hit harder than any other by the turmoil... 23rd December 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policymakers to retain their dovish bias (Dec 09) The markets are now pricing in relatively aggressive monetary tightening from mid-2010 in most countries in Emerging Europe but we think that three factors will keep rates much lower than investors... 18th December 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Domestic pressures to hold back the recovery (Q4 2009) The good news is that following the turmoil earlier this year, most economies in Emerging Europe have now returned to positive growth and financial markets have bounced. The bad news is that a number... 10th December 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Q3 GDP show signs of growth, but a long way to go (Nov 09) Q3 GDP data released earlier this month painted a mixed picture. Although much of the region has now returned to positive quarterly growth, this has been was driven by a variety of temporary factors... 27th November 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Easing-cycle may be over, but hikes are not imminent (Nov 09) After an aggressive easing of monetary policy over the past year, we now think that interest rates have troughed in Poland, Turkey and the Czech Republic. However policymakers in all three will retain... 20th November 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Consumer and business confidence starts to return (Oct 09) After collapsing across the board earlier in the year, consumer and business confidence indicators have rebounded sharply over the past six months. In some cases, they are approaching pre-crisis... 29th October 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets still premature in pricing in rate hikes (Oct 09) Although monetary easing-cycles in much of the region are drawing to a close, we still do not expect rates to be hiked anywhere before the second half of 2010. Turkey is likely to be the first to... 16th October 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Fiscal concerns coming to the fore (Sep 09) As deep recessions in the region have unfolded, all countries in Emerging Europe have experienced a sharp deterioration in their public finances. Some nations, particularly those that have turned to... 30th September 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Brighter outlook but still facing an uphill struggle (Q3 2009) We have nudged up our GDP forecasts for the region’s most open economies, predominantly those in Central Europe, in response to a modest improvement in the outlook for Western Europe. The inventory... 22nd September 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Talk of rate hikes to prove premature (Sep 09) Although we have nudged up our growth forecasts for next year, we do not expect policymakers in the region to raise interest rates for some time. While Turkey and the Czech Republic are likely to be... 18th September 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prospects for Turkish property still weak in the short-term The Turkish economy returned to growth in 2009Q2. Accordingly, we have nudged up our GDP forecasts for this year and next. Yet we are not convinced that these revisions will be enough to reverse the... 18th September 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Q2 GDP data paint a mixed picture (Aug 09) While some economies managed to post quarterly growth in Q2, others continued to contract sharply. We think that there are still plenty of reasons to be cautious, even in those countries that appear... 27th August 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Easing-cycles still have further to run (Aug 09) Hungary and Romania are both likely to continue to capitalise on the current favourable conditions in financial markets by cutting interest rates again in their forthcoming meetings. Elsewhere... 19th August 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Signs of improvement but recovery will be weak (Jul 09) Recent data releases suggest that the rate of decline across Emerging Europe has started to ease. But while the region as a whole may no longer be in freefall, there are a number of reasons to remain... 30th July 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rates set to fall as confidence edges up (Jul 09) Signs of a pick-up in investor confidence means Hungary could resume its monetary-easing cycle later this month, with a further cut in rates also likely in Romania. Elsewhere, we still see room for... 15th July 2009 · 1 min read
