Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing growth slowing, price pressures easing June’s Manufacturing PMIs suggest that the previously impressive recovery in the region’s industrial sector is now losing steam and that price pressures are starting to ease. 2nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish growth is unsustainable News that Turkish GDP grew by an above-consensus 11% y/y in Q1 of this year confirms what we already knew – the economy is overheating. 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Running into external headwinds The economies of Emerging Europe are running into external headwinds. The most obvious of these is the deepening sovereign debt crisis in the euro-zone, which, despite the fact that Greece looks to... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers stick to their guns The Central Bank of Turkey kept interest rates on hold today and gave no hint that it will resort to more conventional measures to cool an economy that is showing clear signs of overheating. The key... 24th June 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation still driven by food and energy Headline inflation has remained at uncomfortably high levels across the region, at the same time as activity in industrial and service sectors is beginning to wane. This underscores the policy dilemma... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Turkey's post-election policy priorities As the dust settles on last weekend’s parliamentary elections, the immediate priority for policymakers will be to cool an economy that is displaying increasing signs of overheating. This will require... 15th June 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for the Turkish economy? Victory in the elections held in Turkey yesterday ensures an unprecedented third term for the Justice and Development Party (AKP). But the positive market reaction, including a stockmarket rally and... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus How good is the long-run outlook for Turkish property returns? Strong economic growth in Turkey over the next 10 to 15 years should support an above average decline in commercial property yields, as well as reasonably strong rental value growth. Our central view... 26th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Inflation to slow in 2012, Turkey the exception The spike in inflation that has dominated the headlines in recent months should be short-lived. In most countries, rising inflation has been driven by higher food and energy inflation, which in turn... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will Istanbul be next to join the office rent recovery? Unlike in Warsaw and Moscow, office rents in Prague, Budapest, Bucharest or Istanbul have not risen over the past year. But the latest macroeconomic and occupier market data signal that Istanbul will... 20th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: The inflation spike starts here The pick-up in Turkish inflation to 4.3% y/y last month is only the thin end of the wedge and we expect it to rise to over 7% by Q1 2012. Against the backdrop of yet more bad news on the trade deficit... 3rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: No surprises from the new Governor Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey to keep interest rates on hold at 6.25% but raise bank reserve requirements on short-term lira and FX deposits is a clear signal that there will be no... 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What should we make of the new CBRT governor? The appointment of Erdem Basci as the new Governor of the Central Bank of Turkey will no doubt lead to concerns about increased government influence over monetary policy. While these concerns are... 14th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: from bright spot to black spot? In some respects, Turkish fourth quarter GDP data simply confirm what we already knew – the economy picked up pace towards the end of last year and ended 2010 on a high note. But the sheer pace of... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth to slow in the second half The recovery in Emerging Europe remains broadly on track. GDP growth rates are likely to prove solid, if not spectacular, in a number of countries over the coming years with Turkey, Poland and, in the... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT steps up pace of tightening Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey to raise bank reserve requirements by a massive 400bp should help to calm market fears that it has fallen behind the curve in the face of booming... 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
