Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey MPC meeting to focus on the lira The Central Bank of Turkey has announced that the MPC will hold an (unscheduled) interim meeting tomorrow, which, it seems, is likely to result in fresh measures to prevent a disorderly adjustment in... 4th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 slowdown a sign of things to come Leading indicators suggest that annual growth slowed in pretty much every economy in the region in Q2 of this year. Unfortunately, rather than being just a temporary blip, we think that this is a sign... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation close to peaking Inflation is close to peaking in most countries in Emerging Europe. Indeed, it may already have done so in Russia. 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish growth set to slow sharply Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey to suspend its daily purchases of US$ should help to stabilise the lira in the very near term. But it does not tackle the underlying concern, namely... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Euro-crisis: How big is the contagion threat? The prevailing view that Emerging Europe should be able to avoid contagion from the escalating crisis in the euro-zone could prove to be dangerously complacent. At the very least, strong trade ties... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update E.coli outbreak not the only disinflationary factor Inflation fell sharply in most countries in the region last month, due in large part to a surprise drop in food prices. This appears to have been driven by one-off factors relating to the outbreak of... 20th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing growth slowing, price pressures easing June’s Manufacturing PMIs suggest that the previously impressive recovery in the region’s industrial sector is now losing steam and that price pressures are starting to ease. 2nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish growth is unsustainable News that Turkish GDP grew by an above-consensus 11% y/y in Q1 of this year confirms what we already knew – the economy is overheating. 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Running into external headwinds The economies of Emerging Europe are running into external headwinds. The most obvious of these is the deepening sovereign debt crisis in the euro-zone, which, despite the fact that Greece looks to... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers stick to their guns The Central Bank of Turkey kept interest rates on hold today and gave no hint that it will resort to more conventional measures to cool an economy that is showing clear signs of overheating. The key... 24th June 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation still driven by food and energy Headline inflation has remained at uncomfortably high levels across the region, at the same time as activity in industrial and service sectors is beginning to wane. This underscores the policy dilemma... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Turkey's post-election policy priorities As the dust settles on last weekend’s parliamentary elections, the immediate priority for policymakers will be to cool an economy that is displaying increasing signs of overheating. This will require... 15th June 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for the Turkish economy? Victory in the elections held in Turkey yesterday ensures an unprecedented third term for the Justice and Development Party (AKP). But the positive market reaction, including a stockmarket rally and... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus How good is the long-run outlook for Turkish property returns? Strong economic growth in Turkey over the next 10 to 15 years should support an above average decline in commercial property yields, as well as reasonably strong rental value growth. Our central view... 26th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Inflation to slow in 2012, Turkey the exception The spike in inflation that has dominated the headlines in recent months should be short-lived. In most countries, rising inflation has been driven by higher food and energy inflation, which in turn... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will Istanbul be next to join the office rent recovery? Unlike in Warsaw and Moscow, office rents in Prague, Budapest, Bucharest or Istanbul have not risen over the past year. But the latest macroeconomic and occupier market data signal that Istanbul will... 20th May 2011 · 1 min read
