Emerging Europe Economics Update Underlying inflation remains weak January’s inflation data in Emerging Europe has been a particularly mixed bunch, reflecting the impact of various indirect tax changes as well as the tail end of the commodity price shock a year ago... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone bank deleveraging still a threat to growth Fears that euro-zone banks might suddenly withdraw their funding to subsidiaries in Emerging Europe have eased markedly over the past month, due in large part to the success of the ECB’s long-term... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A Turkish soft landing still looks like a tall order Signs that Turkey’s current account deficit is narrowing, coupled with a marked improvement in global financing conditions, have raised hopes that it may be able to put its balance of payments on a... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish boom hits the buffers December’s trade data provide the clearest evidence yet that the boom in Turkish domestic demand seen over the past couple of years has come to an abrupt halt. 3rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs add to signs of stabilisation January’s manufacturing PMI data provide some evidence that the slump in industry in Emerging Europe’s most open economies is bottoming out. However, the Czech and Hungarian readings are still... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation fears will fade in 2012 Recent comments from central bankers suggest that inflation is still high on the list of concerns for policymakers in the region. However, the unwinding of the last year’s commodity price shock... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
Euro-zone departures to exacerbate the downturn The euro-zone stands on the brink of a deep recession which will encompass all member states. Emerging European economies have less scope to loosen policy in response to a drop in euro-zone output... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Markets rally but economic data still gloomy The improvement in global risk appetite seen in recent weeks has ensured that financial markets across Emerging Europe have enjoyed a decent start to 2012. Yet we remain doubtful that this rebound can... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Talk of Turkish easing looks premature Despite the recent rally in the lira and signs that Turkey’s current account deficit is starting to narrow, the reduction in effective interest rates seen over the past few weeks is likely to prove... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary plays chicken with the markets This is the first edition of our new monthly publication Emerging Europe Watch. This will summarise the major talking points in the region and preview key data and events. In this issue we look at... 18th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Vienna 2.0 shaping up to be a damp squib Yesterday’s “Vienna Initiative” meeting adds to our fears that euro-zone policymakers are now less willing to step in to help Emerging Europe than in 2008/09. Of course, much depends on how events pan... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: painful current account adjustment underway On the face of it, the most recent Turkish balance of payments data are encouraging. The current account deficit appears to be narrowing, while capital inflows have held up. But underlying this is the... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is Turkey poised for a sharp rise in property yields? Given the prospect of a recession in Turkey this year, it could be argued that property yields are currently too low. Indeed, we expect them to increase this year. But their apparent resilience during... 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey tightens further, adding to recession risk Over the past week, the Turkish Central Bank (CBRT) has used above-target and rising inflation to justify further measures to tighten monetary policy. However, we think the threat of a disorderly... 3rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Sliding back into recession The past month has brought further evidence – if any were needed – that Emerging Europe will not escape unscathed from the gathering storm in the euro-zone. Unsurprisingly, perhaps, the region’s most... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation threat is not as big as many fear Headline inflation has picked up across much of Emerging Europe. But we don’t think this threat is as big as some commentators are suggesting since underlying inflationary pressures are subdued. With... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
