Emerging Europe Economics Update Vienna 2.0 shaping up to be a damp squib Yesterday’s “Vienna Initiative” meeting adds to our fears that euro-zone policymakers are now less willing to step in to help Emerging Europe than in 2008/09. Of course, much depends on how events pan... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: painful current account adjustment underway On the face of it, the most recent Turkish balance of payments data are encouraging. The current account deficit appears to be narrowing, while capital inflows have held up. But underlying this is the... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is Turkey poised for a sharp rise in property yields? Given the prospect of a recession in Turkey this year, it could be argued that property yields are currently too low. Indeed, we expect them to increase this year. But their apparent resilience during... 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey tightens further, adding to recession risk Over the past week, the Turkish Central Bank (CBRT) has used above-target and rising inflation to justify further measures to tighten monetary policy. However, we think the threat of a disorderly... 3rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Sliding back into recession The past month has brought further evidence – if any were needed – that Emerging Europe will not escape unscathed from the gathering storm in the euro-zone. Unsurprisingly, perhaps, the region’s most... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation threat is not as big as many fear Headline inflation has picked up across much of Emerging Europe. But we don’t think this threat is as big as some commentators are suggesting since underlying inflationary pressures are subdued. With... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish GDP: export boost masks weaker domestic demand Today’s Q3 GDP data surprised on the upside but, as we expected, domestic demand slowed much more sharply than the headline GDP growth rate. The key point though, is that today’s data do not yet... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: the slowdown has started Turkish Q3 GDP data, due next week, are likely to show that the economy slowed to around 5.5% on an annual basis and contracted over the quarter on the back of weaker domestic demand. But, crucially... 8th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Euro crisis to trigger recessions further east The deepening turmoil in the euro-zone is likely to drag large parts of Emerging Europe into recession over the next year. Financial sector vulnerabilities mean that recession risks are greatest in... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing sliding into recession November’s manufacturing PMI data brought further evidence – if any was needed – that the more open economies in Emerging Europe are following their Western European neighbours into recession. Even... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack European property market is running out of bright spots Led by Poland and Russia, commercial property markets in CEE have been a relatively bright spot for investment in Europe. Yet, even here, growth in quarterly investment volumes has begun to slow. And... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish tightening here to stay The Turkish central bank (CBRT) left its benchmark policy rate on hold today as expected, but the crucial point is that interest rates have already been hiked, albeit via the backdoor. Tighter... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Euro crisis starts to bite Despite the deepening crisis in the euro-zone, data released over the past month showed that growth accelerated in a number of countries in Emerging Europe in the third quarter of this year. Yet while... 22nd November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-crisis takes centre stage The deepening crisis in the euro-zone has led to a marked deterioration in the outlook for growth across Emerging Europe, but it will bring a range of different responses from policymakers in the... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Upside surprise from PMIs, but industry still slowing October’s manufacturing PMI data came in stronger than expected in most of Emerging Europe. Nevertheless, this does not hide the fact that hard data are weakening. On a quarterly basis, it appears... 2nd November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Markets rebound, but growth slowing Financial markets in Emerging Europe have rebounded following this summer’s turmoil. Equity markets (Turkey aside) have rallied by around 8% or more this month, while the region’s currencies have... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
