Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Slowdown has further to run A strong labour market combined with low and stable mortgage rates have not been able to prevent a small rise in mortgage arrears. Possessions are currently being kept low by continued lender... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Little underlying improvement in Turkey's external deficit The upgrade to Turkey’s credit rating last week came in spite of the fact that there has been little underlying improvement in its sizeable current account deficit. This leaves the economy exposed to... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will Turkey's sovereign debt upgrade lower property yields? At the margins, a case could be made that Turkey’s sovereign debt upgrade could boost investor sentiment towards all Turkish assets, including property. But, in 2013, given the prospect of tight... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The slowdown spreads Third quarter GDP data, which are due to be released by most countries over the coming month, are likely to make fairly grim reading. We estimate that regional growth slowed to around 1.5-2.0% y/y in... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish upgrade unlikely to be a game changer for markets Today’s decision by Fitch to raise Turkey’s sovereign debt rating to investment grade is likely to have only a limited impact on financial markets since the move seems to have already been priced in... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish stock market rally looks overdone Turkish equities have risen by over 40% since the start of the year, but we think that macroeconomic frailties and weaker global risk appetite could bring this rally to an abrupt end. 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s manufacturing still in recession The latest PMIs show that manufacturing in the highly open economies of Central Europe remains in recession due in large part to falling external demand. By contrast, the Turkish PMI data provide... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Economic slowdown spreads to strongest performers The slowdown across Emerging Europe has intensified in recent months. We reckon that the region’s economy expanded at an annual pace of around 1.5-2.0% in Q3, down from 2.5% in Q2 and an average of 4... 26th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rate cut a symbolic move Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) to cut its overnight lending rate – which forms the upper bound of its “interest rate corridor” – is a largely symbolic move that is most likely... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish tax hikes won’t prevent inflation from falling The hikes in indirect taxes announced by the Turkish government over the past few weeks will not prevent inflation from falling further towards the end of this year. But even so, current account... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s gold boost set to lose its shine A surge in gold sales to crisis-hit Iran has played a significant role in reducing Turkey’s current account deficit over the past year. However, gold sales alone are unlikely to bring Turkey’s... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industrial recession deepens in Central Europe The pick-up in the manufacturing PMI for Russia and Turkey last month is good news, although the survey still suggests that industrial production in both countries stagnated in quarterly terms in Q3... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central banks step up to the plate Central banks in Emerging Europe are starting to respond to the economic downturn that has spread across the region. Interest rates were cut this month in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Turkey, and... 28th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What is the outlook for Istanbul retail rents? Reports that retail rents in Istanbul have fallen by about 6% over the past year seem consistent with the sharp slowdown in consumer spending and the large boost to supply last year. But if we are... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey steps into easing mode, but impact likely to be limited Today’s cut in the Turkish overnight lending rate is partly cosmetic and the impact on domestic demand is likely to be limited. We wouldn’t rule out a few more steps to narrow the “interest rate... 18th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus The hidden risk of rising Turkish bank debt Although Turkey’s current account deficit has started to narrow, short-term external debt – particularly in the banking sector – has risen sharply over the past couple of years. As such, Turkey... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
