Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Emerging Europe doomed to lag behind? There are encouraging signs that the slowdown in Emerging Europe has bottomed out in recent months and we think growth should strengthen over the second half of this year. The recovery will remain... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: volatility to remain the order of the day The scale of yesterday’s intervention by the Turkish central bank to defend the lira underlines the vulnerabilities that have built in the country’s economy. We are tweaking some of our forecasts, but... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs add to evidence of improvement in Eastern Europe The latest batch of Emerging European manufacturing PMIs adds to the growing sense that things are improving in the region. This reinforces our view that growth in the second half of this year is... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Credit conditions still tight Our latest Banking Heat Map suggests that credit conditions in most countries in Emerging Europe remain extremely tight. The main exception is Turkey, where credit growth has accelerated again in... 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Grounds for cautious optimism The latest activity data from Emerging Europe provide some grounds for cautious optimism. Growth in the highly open Central European economies appears to be picking up, albeit from low rates. And... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Protests hit Turkish markets Turkey’s financial markets have taken a pounding over the past few weeks as the recent wave of protests caused investors to take fright. Elsewhere, currencies and foreign currency bonds have lost... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey's easing cycle probably at an end The Turkish central bank’s decision to keep interest rates on hold today probably marks the end of the easing cycle. In fact, policymakers have already tightened monetary conditions in recent weeks... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Hopes that CEE investment had turned a corner are dashed The likely drop in Central & Eastern European (CEE) investment volumes in Q2 will have dashed any hopes that the trend for activity might have turned a corner. Moreover, the recent sell-off in... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Political instability a risk to Turkey's otherwise bright property outlook Growing civil unrest is one factor which we have previously highlighted as a risk to the medium-term outlook for Turkish commercial property returns. For now, we are sticking with our central... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s ROM - not working as hoped The Turkish central bank’s much-vaunted “reserve option mechanism” doesn’t appear to have smoothed movements in the currency, as had been hoped. This means that the Bank may have to rely on more... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey Q1 GDP reveals familiar vulnerabilities First quarter GDP growth in Turkey was stronger than expected, driven by an impressive turnaround in domestic demand. But the flipside of domestic demand-led growth is that the current account deficit... 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: weak Q1 GDP could add to market concerns The protests that have gripped Turkey over the past couple of weeks have come at a time when the country’s economic vulnerabilities appear to be mounting. This week, as well as the ongoing protests... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How important has political stability been for Turkey's economy? Although it is difficult to draw a direct link between political stability and GDP growth, it does seem that better governance has played a key role in attracting the inflows of foreign capital that... 7th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting Turkey's external risks While Turkish asset prices have regained some of their lost ground today, the outbreak of protests over the past few days has re-focused attention on the country’s economic vulnerabilities. In... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central European manufacturing showing signs of revival May’s PMIs provided some encouraging signs that manufacturing in Central Europe is turning the corner, helped by stronger demand from Germany. Worryingly though, the data indicate that the Turkish... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Slump in regional growth may be bottoming out The raft of preliminary GDP data released earlier this month provided some hope that the region’s slowdown bottomed out in the first quarter of the year. Nonetheless, growth is extremely weak, at just... 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
