Emerging Europe Economics Update What does 2014 hold in store for Emerging Europe? After a torrid run over the past five years, things are looking on the up for Emerging Europe. Of course, the region will remain vulnerable to events in the euro-zone. However, so long as the single... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor "Fragile five" trade balances improving EM export growth continued to gather pace in November and forward-looking indicators suggest that the recovery has further to run. There are signs that the trade balances of the “fragile five” EMs... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fall in the lira may trigger Turkish rate hike The Turkish central bank has been extremely reluctant to raise official interest rates over the past year or so. However, the recent fall in the lira may now force its hand. On balance, we think it is... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What might Turkey’s political crisis mean for the economy? The eruption of a high-level corruption scandal in Turkey over the past few weeks has cast a spotlight onto the country's political stability. Better governance appears to have played a key role in... 2nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update December’s PMIs highlight fragile recovery Manufacturing PMIs fell across Emerging Europe last month. Russia aside, the PMI readings are still high by the standard of the past couple of years. Even so, today’s data serve as a reminder that the... 2nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A rollercoaster month for Ukraine’s financial markets Escalating political protests caused Ukrainian bond yields and CDS premia to spike at the start of the month. However, following the announcement that Ukraine will receive financial assistance from... 20th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Ukraine steps back from the brink, but problems unresolved The outbreak of protests in Ukraine has dominated the headlines over the past month. With FX reserves already at perilously low levels, it had looked like the country could be tipped into a full-blown... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe to keep rates low, Turkey set to tighten The Turkish central bank took small steps to tighten monetary conditions today but, given the country's vulnerability to Fed tapering, more aggressive measures could be needed next year. In contrast... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How big is the deflation threat in Central Europe? The weakness of the latest inflation data in Central Europe has sparked fears that, like the euro-zone, the region could be at risk of falling into a deflationary spiral. In this Watch, we argue that... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Central Europe to lead the way, Russia & Turkey to disappoint The recovery in Emerging Europe has moved onto a firmer footing in recent months and we expect growth to accelerate over the coming quarters. However, the recovery is likely to be patchy and uneven... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: a decent Q3, but risks growing Turkish GDP growth held up relatively well in Q3 in spite of the turmoil in the financial markets and a substantial tightening of monetary policy. However, this was made possible by a rapid expansion... 10th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Elections in the "Fragile Five": threat or an opportunity? Each of the five countries that were the worst hit by the summer currency sell-off (the so-called “Fragile Five”) are due to hold important elections next year. In the short term, uncertainty ahead of... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update November’s PMIs suggest recovery is strengthening The latest PMIs for Emerging Europe show that the region's manufacturing sector strengthened further in November. The important exception is Russia, whose PMI fell back last month, adding to the... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth gradually picking up A raft of GDP data released over the past month confirmed that growth in Emerging Europe accelerated in Q3, albeit gradually. Overall, we calculate that regional GDP expanded by 1.8% y/y, up from 1.6%... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian and Turkish markets continue to underperform It’s been a bumpy few weeks for equities and currencies in the region. Those in the two largest economies, Turkey and Russia, have underperformed. Meanwhile, the Czech koruna has posted the largest... 22nd November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey tightens modestly but more may be needed The Turkish central bank made a small adjustment to its liquidity provision today which should lead to a modest rise in market interest rates. However, there's little more that the MPC can now do to... 19th November 2013 · 1 min read
