Emerging Europe Economic Outlook

Overheating in Russia and Turkey, recoveries in CEE

Economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) ended last year in stagnation, but headwinds to growth are lifting and we think that 2024 will be a year of modest recovery. Inflation has fallen sharply...

26th March 2024 · 22 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Tusk’s first 100 days, CBRT’s pre-election surprise

The new Polish government (which marks its 100 day milestone today) has successfully unblocked EU funds and delivered a wave of optimism that has helped Poland's financial markets outperform those in...

22nd March 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.)

Turkey’s central bank unexpectedly raised its key policy rate by 500bp at today’s meeting, to 50.00%, and its hawkish communications leave open the possibility of another rate hike in April. With the...

21st March 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Tightening in Turkey, CNB holds onto its hawkishness

Pressures on Turkish policymakers are building ahead of the local elections on 31st March as capital inflows have slowed and FX reserves are falling again. We doubt the central bank will hike interest...

15th March 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Three key stories from Turkey's balance of payments

Turkey’s balance of payments figures for January showed that the current account deficit continued to narrow, but the drop in capital inflows in recent months is a concern and it appears that this...

12th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Judging the fiscal risks from upcoming EM elections

This year is a particularly busy one for elections in the emerging world, and these votes raise the risk of fiscal giveaways that worsen public debt dynamics. We think the risks are greatest in...

7th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.)

The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation to 67.1% y/y in February adds to our concerns given that it comes on the back of a large increase in inflation in January and the strength of...

4th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Is Turkey’s economy getting the medicine it needs?

The unexpected re-acceleration in Turkish GDP growth in Q4 challenges the view that aggressive monetary tightening delivered over the second half of last year is rebalancing the economy. If inflation...

1st March 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey GDP (Q4 2023)

The pick-up in Turkish GDP growth to 1.0% q/q in Q4 was driven by a rebound in private consumption and suggests that aggressive monetary tightening has yet to take the sting out of domestic demand...

29th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE wage growth still hot, new Russia sanctions

The latest wage data released out of Poland and Hungary this week showed that labour cost pressures have remained very strong in parts of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). So despite another slew of...

23rd February 2024 · 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.)

The hawkish statement accompanying the Turkish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 45.00% today supports our view that a shift to monetary easing remains some way off and we...

22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Israel’s rating downgrade, Turkey’s external position

The decision by Moody's to deliver Israel's first credit rating downgrade in its history late last week is a warning sign to policymakers that the strength of the public finances should not be taken...

16th February 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Inflation Report Briefing (Feb.)

The communications from new Turkish central bank governor Karahan at today’s Inflation Report briefing will have helped to reassure investors that the change at the helm of the central bank won’t lead...

8th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan.)

Headline inflation edged up slightly in Turkey to 64.9% y/y in January, and the m/m figure – a 6.7% increase on the back of a large minimum wage hike – looked even worse. The figures highlight the...

5th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.)

The manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) for January remained soft and haven’t changed the broad picture that the region’s industrial sectors continue to struggle. Turkey’s PMI...

1st February 2024 · 2 mins read